The US-Israel-Iran War: A Deepening Crisis With Global Consequences

Last updated: 8 July 2026

The military conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has entered its third week, and its effects are being felt far beyond the Middle East. What started as targeted strikes has grown into a full-scale confrontation that threatens global stability, energy markets, and the lives of millions of civilians.

What Is Happening on the Ground?

Since the operation began on February 28, 2026, the US-Israeli coalition has carried out extensive strikes on Iranian territory and military infrastructure. According to the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ), at least 254 journalists have been killed, and media infrastructure across the region has been destroyed. Press freedom violations are widespread, with reporters being arrested and access to conflict zones being severely restricted.

In Beirut, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres demanded an immediate end to the war, warning that southern Lebanon risks being turned into a wasteland. He announced a humanitarian appeal for $308 million to address the growing crisis.

The Legal Questions No One Can Ignore

One of the most alarming developments came on March 13, when US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth reportedly stated that American forces would take no prisoners among Iranian combatants. Legal experts at Just Security published a detailed analysis warning that such a policy would constitute a war crime under international humanitarian law. The legal community has responded with urgency, with multiple analyses examining the implications for military commanders who follow such orders.

Experts have also raised serious concerns about maritime law. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world's oil passes, has become a flashpoint. Just Security published analyses on the legal and operational challenges of transit passage through the strait, as well as a broader examination of the law of naval warfare in this conflict.

Europe Caught in the Crossfire

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published a series of analyses showing how deeply the war affects Europe. A drone attack on the British RAF base at Akrotiri in Cyprus has underscored just how close the conflict is to European soil. The attack has worsened tensions between Greece and Turkey, and between the EU and Turkey.

Carnegie analysts also noted that Europe's response has been fragmented and weak. Despite years of leading diplomacy with Tehran through the Iran nuclear deal, European governments have struggled to present a united front.

Why Aren't Russia and China Helping Iran?

In a surprising development, neither Russia nor China has rushed to support Iran militarily, despite their strategic partnerships. Carnegie analysts suggest this reflects careful calculation rather than indifference. Both countries appear to be weighing the risks of direct confrontation with the US against the potential benefits of supporting Tehran.

A War That Was Predictable

OpenDemocracy argues that for Trump and Netanyahu, this war is a problem entirely of their own making. Iran's capacity to resist has proven far stronger than expected, and the strikes on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz have triggered a global energy crisis. Oil prices have surged, fueling inflation and political unrest in developing nations, particularly India, where the economic fallout has been severe.

As the International Crisis Group warns, decision-makers around the world are struggling to assess how this new Middle East conflict will affect their own interests and global stability. The greatest dangers, many experts believe, may still lie ahead.

What Our Experts Say

This conflict represents the most dangerous escalation in the Middle East since 2003. The combination of unresolved legal questions about the conduct of war, the humanitarian toll, and the economic shockwaves makes this a crisis that demands immediate international attention. The world cannot afford to look away.

Sources

• International Crisis Group: Conflict and Consequences
• Carnegie: The Iran War's Dangerous Fallout for Europe
• Carnegie: The Greatest Dangers May Lie Ahead
• Carnegie: Europe on Iran — Gone with the Wind
• Carnegie: Why Are China and Russia Not Rushing to Help Iran?
• Just Security: Law of Naval Warfare and the Iran War
• Just Security: Strait of Hormuz Transit Passage
• Just Security: Legal Advice on Hegseth "No Quarter" Statement
• OpenDemocracy: For Trump and Netanyahu, the Iran War Is Their Own Making
• OpenDemocracy: Oil, Inflation, Unrest
• CPJ: Press Freedom Violations in the Iran War
• UN News: Guterres Demands End to Middle East War
• UN News: UN Scales Up Aid as Crisis Deepens