Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, Syria: Conflicts Driving Asylum Worldwide

Last updated: 5 October 2026

Photo: Sudan - Laurent de Walick

Global conflict asylum claims arise predominantly from a small number of major conflict zones: Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, Syria, Ukraine, Myanmar, Afghanistan, DRC, Yemen, and several others. Furthermore, these conflicts together produce the majority of the world's approximately 125 million forcibly displaced persons. As a result, asylum systems globally engage primarily with these source countries. This article surveys the major conflicts driving asylum worldwide, their characteristics, and asylum implications. Understanding these conflicts is essential for both country expert work and asylum case strategy.[1]

Sudan (2023-present)

The Sudan war between SAF and RSF, beginning April 2023, has produced the world's largest current displacement crisis. Over 9 million internally displaced and 3.2+ million refugees in neighbouring countries (Chad, Egypt, South Sudan, Ethiopia, CAR, Libya). Furthermore, the conflict has involved genocide-level targeting of non-Arab Darfuri communities (Masalit, Fur, Zaghawa) — formally determined as genocide by the US State Department in January 2025. As a result, Sudanese asylum claims are among the strongest available globally. Therefore, the UNHCR has called for non-return of all Sudanese.[2]

Ethiopia

Ethiopia's Tigray conflict (November 2020-November 2022) ended with the Pretoria Agreement, but conflict has persisted in Amhara and Oromia regions. Furthermore, post-Tigray war atrocities remain unaccounted for, and the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission/UN Joint Investigation documented widespread violations. As a result, Ethiopian asylum claims arise from: Tigrayan and Amhara ethnicities; Oromo political opposition; survivors of CRSV; ex-soldiers; persons targeted in Amhara conflict. Therefore, Ethiopian claims remain valid post-Pretoria, particularly for current Amhara and Oromia situations.[3]

Somalia

Somalia has experienced over 30 years of conflict, currently centred on the al-Shabaab insurgency and ongoing clan-based tensions. The Somali Federal Government, with African Union (AUSSOM, successor to ATMIS) support, faces continuing al-Shabaab capacity. Furthermore, UK case law (MOJ & Ors (Return to Mogadishu) Somalia CG [2014] UKUT 442) provides established country guidance. Risks include al-Shabaab targeting, clan-based persecution, generalised violence, and humanitarian conditions. As a result, Somali asylum claims continue to feature significantly. Therefore, Somali claims should engage with current al-Shabaab dynamics and clan analysis.[4]

Syria

Syria's civil war (2011-2024) ended in December 2024 with the fall of the Assad regime to opposition forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Furthermore, the transition has produced complex new dynamics: HTS-led transitional government; continuing pockets of conflict; uncertain status of minorities (Alawites, Christians, Druze, Kurds); concerns about ISIL resurgence; SDF status. As a result, Syrian asylum analysis has changed dramatically — but new uncertainties have emerged. UNHCR has not yet promoted large-scale returns. Therefore, Syrian asylum claims remain valid pending stabilisation.[5]

"The number of forcibly displaced people worldwide has reached unprecedented levels. Conflicts in Sudan, Ukraine, Syria, Myanmar, and elsewhere continue to drive new displacement faster than solutions emerge."UNHCR Global Trends Report 2026

Ukraine

Russia's invasion of Ukraine (February 2022) produced the largest European displacement since World War II. Approximately 6 million Ukrainian refugees in Europe; 4 million internally displaced. Furthermore, the war continues with intermittent ceasefire negotiations under varying international pressure. As a result, EU Temporary Protection Directive activation provides Ukrainian-specific protection. Therefore, Ukrainian claims are typically processed through TPD routes rather than asylum.[6]

Myanmar

Myanmar's post-February 2021 coup civil war has produced 3.5 million displaced. Furthermore, the military junta faces resistance from People's Defence Forces (PDF) and various ethnic armed organisations (KIA, KNU, AA, etc.). The Rohingya crisis (post-2017) continues unresolved with 1 million Rohingya in Bangladesh. As a result, Myanmar asylum claims arise from: anti-coup resistance; Rohingya and other ethnic minorities; women and girls; LGBT+; journalists; civil society activists. Therefore, Myanmar claims are robust under multiple Convention grounds.[7]

Afghanistan

Afghanistan under Taliban rule (since August 2021) faces severe human rights crisis. The "Vice and Virtue" laws criminalise women's movement and dress. Hazara, former Republic-era officials, women's rights activists, journalists, and LGBT+ persons face severe persecution. Furthermore, UNAMA continues documenting violations. As a result, Afghan asylum claims have rich evidentiary support. Therefore, UNHCR Afghanistan position remains non-return.[8]

DRC, Yemen, and Others

Additional major conflict-driven displacement includes: Democratic Republic of Congo — M23 conflict, Kivu region, ~7M displaced; Yemen — civil war and humanitarian crisis, ~4.5M displaced; Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger — Sahel insurgency and post-coup instability; CAR — recurring conflict; Haiti — gang control crisis; Mozambique (Cabo Delgado) — insurgency. Furthermore, each of these source countries produces ongoing asylum claims. As a result, asylum systems engage with diverse conflict scenarios. Therefore, country-specific expertise is essential.[9]

Conclusion: A World of Conflicts

Global conflict asylum claims arise from a relatively small number of major conflicts that together produce most of the world's 125 million displaced. Furthermore, each conflict has its own characteristics, key armed actors, and asylum implications. As a result, asylum practitioners must develop both country-specific expertise and cross-conflict comparative knowledge. Therefore, the global conflict landscape remains the primary driver of asylum law's contemporary relevance.