South Sudan: Widespread Poverty and Instability Force Migration

Introduction

South Sudan faces one of the world's most acute humanitarian emergencies. Poverty and instability in South Sudan have driven millions into displacement, both internally and across international borders. Since gaining independence in 2011, the country has struggled with cyclical armed conflict, systemic economic mismanagement, and the collapse of basic state functions. As of 2025, more than 8.3 million people require humanitarian assistance, and over 2.3 million South Sudanese live as refugees in neighbouring countries. This article examines the structural causes of mass migration from South Sudan, the human rights violations underpinning displacement, and the legal framework that allows South Sudanese nationals to claim asylum under international refugee law.

Background and Context

South Sudan became the world's newest nation on 9 July 2011, following a referendum that delivered a 98.8% vote for independence from Sudan. The early years of independence brought cautious optimism. Oil revenues, which represent 98% of the government's export earnings, promised a pathway to development. However, structural weaknesses embedded in the state from its inception — a patronage-based political system, absence of civilian institutions, and a military made up of former rebel factions — made conflict almost inevitable.

In December 2013, a political dispute between President Salva Kiir and former Vice President Riek Machar ignited a civil war that rapidly assumed ethnic dimensions. Fighting between Dinka-affiliated forces loyal to Kiir and Nuer fighters supporting Machar killed an estimated 400,000 people between 2013 and 2020. A peace agreement signed in September 2018 — the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) — created a transitional government in 2020, but implementation has been deeply flawed. Violence continues in multiple states, and political power remains concentrated in the hands of a small elite.

Economic collapse compounded the humanitarian crisis. South Sudan relies almost entirely on oil revenues, but years of conflict damaged infrastructure and reduced production capacity. Corruption has diverted billions in public funds. The Global Witness organisation estimated in 2022 that between 2012 and 2020, at least $3.9 billion in oil revenues was stolen or misappropriated by government officials and their associates. Inflation has exceeded 300% annually, making basic goods inaccessible. Unemployment stands above 85% in some regions. The UN Development Programme ranked South Sudan 191st out of 193 countries on the Human Development Index in 2024 — second to last globally.

Current Situation: 2023–2025

As of March 2025, the humanitarian situation in South Sudan remains catastrophic. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported in February 2025 that 7.6 million people face acute food insecurity — the highest level ever recorded for the country. The World Food Programme warns that famine conditions persist in Jonglei, Unity, and Upper Nile states. Malnutrition rates among children under five have reached 30% in some districts, well above the emergency threshold of 15%.

Flooding in 2024 displaced an additional 1.1 million people who had not yet recovered from previous displacements. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reports that as of January 2025, approximately 2.3 million South Sudanese live as refugees in Uganda (1.5 million), Sudan (490,000 — though this figure is decreasing due to violence in Sudan itself), Ethiopia (330,000), and Kenya (140,000). Uganda hosts the largest refugee population in Africa, primarily South Sudanese.

Political instability continues to fuel displacement. In February 2025, fighting erupted in Nasir, Upper Nile State, between South Sudan People's Defence Forces (SSPDF) and forces loyal to General Simon Gatwech Dual. At least 47 civilians were killed and 12,000 displaced in a single week. In January 2025, clashes in Rubkona, Unity State, forced 8,000 people to flee their homes. The transitional government has failed to implement key provisions of the R-ARCSS, including disarmament of armed groups and establishment of a unified national army.

Climate shocks intersect with conflict to deepen vulnerability. South Sudan experienced its worst floods in 60 years in 2021 and severe drought in 2022–2023, destroying crops and livestock. Families in rural areas face an impossible choice: remain and risk starvation or displacement by armed groups, or flee to overcrowded displacement camps where conditions are also dire. The UN estimates that 82% of South Sudan's population lives in rural areas dependent on subsistence agriculture — making them acutely vulnerable to both climate and conflict shocks.

Key Patterns of Human Rights Violation

1. Deliberate civilian targeting. All parties to South Sudan's conflicts have been documented targeting civilians. The UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan documented in its March 2024 report that SSPDF forces and allied militias conducted attacks on villages in Central Equatoria, Jonglei, and Upper Nile, burning homes, killing civilians, and looting property. Armed opposition groups have similarly targeted Dinka communities. The commission found evidence of war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by multiple parties.

2. Sexual violence as a weapon of war. The UN Commission documented systematic sexual violence, including rape, gang rape, and sexual slavery, used as a deliberate tactic by armed groups. In a survey conducted in displaced person camps in 2024, 65% of women reported experiencing sexual violence during displacement or attack. Perpetrators include both government-aligned and opposition forces, and impunity is near-total.

3. Obstruction of humanitarian access. Armed groups and government forces have repeatedly blocked humanitarian convoys, looted aid supplies, and attacked aid workers. OCHA reported 143 security incidents affecting humanitarian operations in 2024, resulting in 12 aid worker deaths. Aid organisations including MSF and Save the Children have been forced to suspend operations in multiple locations.

4. Economic persecution through corruption and resource denial. The systematic theft of state resources constitutes a structural form of persecution. Communities — particularly in rural areas — are denied access to basic services including healthcare, education, clean water, and food as a result of elite capture of state revenues. This deprivation, in the context of armed conflict, amounts to persecution within the meaning of the 1951 Refugee Convention.

Legal Framework

South Sudan has ratified multiple international human rights instruments that create binding legal obligations. The International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR), which South Sudan acceded to in 2015, protects the right to life (Article 6), freedom from torture (Article 7), security of person (Article 9), and freedom from arbitrary displacement. The International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (ICESCR) obligates South Sudan to ensure the right to food (Article 11), health (Article 12), and education (Article 13) — all of which are systematically violated.

International humanitarian law applies to the armed conflict in South Sudan. Common Article 3 of the four Geneva Conventions of 1949 — applicable to non-international armed conflicts — prohibits violence against persons taking no active part in hostilities, including murder, torture, and cruel treatment. The UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan has documented systematic violations of these provisions by all parties. The Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, which South Sudan ratified in 2013, defines war crimes and crimes against humanity — both of which the commission has found evidence for in South Sudan.

The African Charter on Human and Peoples' Rights, which South Sudan acceded to upon independence, guarantees the right to life (Article 4), dignity (Article 5), and the right to leave and return to one's country (Article 12). Systematic violations of these rights by South Sudanese authorities and armed groups create asylum grounds for individuals fleeing the country.

International Obligations and the 1951 Refugee Convention

The 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees defines a refugee as a person who has a well-founded fear of persecution on account of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group, or political opinion. South Sudanese asylum applicants can establish refugee status through multiple pathways. Individuals belonging to ethnic groups targeted by armed forces — particularly Nuer, Dinka sub-clans associated with opposition groups, and Equatoria communities — face persecution based on ethnicity and may establish claims under the "race" or "nationality" grounds.

The UNHCR's Eligibility Guidelines for Assessing the International Protection Needs of Asylum-Seekers from South Sudan (updated 2021) state that South Sudanese nationals from conflict-affected areas are in need of international protection. The guidelines identify multiple risk profiles, including perceived members or supporters of armed groups, journalists, human rights defenders, women at risk of sexual violence, and persons from ethnic minorities perceived as affiliated with opposition forces.

Additionally, Article 1A(2) of the Refugee Convention, read alongside the UNHCR Handbook, allows for recognition of refugee status on grounds of generalised violence where the violence reaches a sufficient level of indiscriminacy. The UN Commission's documentation of indiscriminate attacks on civilian populations in multiple states satisfies this threshold in the eyes of most refugee determination bodies.

Implications for Asylum Claims

South Sudanese nationals applying for asylum in the United Kingdom, United States, European Union, or other jurisdictions with 1951 Convention obligations face a relatively favourable legal environment. Recognition rates for South Sudanese asylum applicants are consistently high. In the United Kingdom, the Home Office's Country Policy and Information Note on South Sudan (updated February 2024) recognises that the country situation is such that significant numbers of applicants will qualify for refugee status or humanitarian protection.

Key grounds for asylum include: persecution based on ethnicity (Nuer, Dinka sub-clans, Equatorian communities targeted by particular armed factions); persecution based on political opinion (perceived support for opposition forces); membership of a particular social group (women at risk of sexual violence, journalists, human rights defenders); and, in some cases, the generalised violence doctrine where indiscriminate violence means any return would place the applicant at serious risk.

Applicants should document their ethnic background and home region, any direct threats or attacks they have experienced, evidence of family members harmed, and evidence of the general country situation. OCHA, UNHCR, Human Rights Watch, and Amnesty International produce regular reports documenting conditions. The UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan's annual reports are particularly authoritative and are routinely accepted by refugee determination bodies.

"The situation in South Sudan remains one of the world's most complex and protracted humanitarian crises. Millions face not just displacement but the deliberate destruction of their livelihoods by armed actors who operate with complete impunity. The international community must act to protect civilians and ensure accountability."

— UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Annual Report 2024

Conclusion

South Sudan's humanitarian crisis is not a natural disaster — it is the product of deliberate political choices, elite capture of state resources, and the systematic use of violence against civilian populations. Poverty and instability in South Sudan constitute interconnected drivers of forced migration, and the distinction between economic migrants and refugees is, in this context, largely artificial. Individuals fleeing South Sudan face threats to their lives, dignity, and fundamental rights that are recognised under international refugee law.

The international community bears responsibility for addressing both the immediate humanitarian needs and the structural causes of the crisis. Accountability for war crimes and crimes against humanity must be pursued through the International Criminal Court and other mechanisms. Development assistance must be conditioned on governance reforms that reduce corruption and ensure that state revenues benefit ordinary citizens. Until these conditions are met, South Sudanese nationals will continue to flee in large numbers, and states hosting them are obligated under international law to provide protection.