Somalia: Al-Shabaab Offensive in Southern Regions — 2026 Update

This 2026 update on Somalia Al-Shabaab update tracks the current offensive in southern regions — Al-Shabaab counter-offensives in Middle Juba, Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, and continuing Mogadishu urban attacks. It complements our earlier Somalia analytical report and Al-Shabaab recruitment article with fresh Q2 2026 developments.[1]

Al-Shabaab has adapted to the 2022-2024 government offensive by regrouping, launching counter-offensives, and continuing high-impact urban attacks. Somali National Army, ATMIS/AUSSOM, US strikes, and community militias (Ma'awisley) are engaged but insurgent capacity has not been broken. Asylum viability continues.

Trajectory 2022-2026

The Somali government's post-2022 offensive followed a distinctive trajectory.[2]

2022 Government Offensive

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's "total war" declaration. SNA + Ma'awisley community militias. Recaptured significant Hirshabelle and Galmudug territory.

2023-2024 Reversals

Al-Shabaab counter-offensive Middle Shabelle August 2023. Retook multiple towns. Government forces retreated in some areas. Ma'awisley operations weakened.

2025-2026 Consolidation

Al-Shabaab focused on southern regions. Continuing Mogadishu urban attacks. Recruiting resumed in cleared areas. Taxation networks re-established.

Territorial Situation 2026

Southern Counter-Offensive

Al-Shabaab has focused 2025-2026 on southern consolidation.[3]

Middle and Lower Juba

Historical Al-Shabaab stronghold. Kismayo Jubaland state government urban. Rural areas largely Al-Shabaab. Continuing attacks on Kismayo perimeter.

Bay and Bakool

Rahanweyn regions. South West State government urban. Baidoa capital. Rural Al-Shabaab.

Lower Shabelle

Between Mogadishu and Kismayo. Strategic route. Contested with continuing Al-Shabaab presence.

Mogadishu Urban Attacks

Continuing high-impact Mogadishu attacks in 2025-2026.[4]

Attack Types

Vehicle-borne IEDs (VBIEDs). Suicide bombings. Complex attacks on hotels, restaurants, government buildings. Assassinations of officials. Journalist targeting.

Recent Notable

March 2025 Mogadishu bombings. Continuing SAA (Special Assault Force) operations against Al-Shabaab attempts. Amniyat operations documented.

Amniyat

Al-Shabaab's intelligence wing Amniyat operates in government-controlled areas.[5]

Assassinations of officials, journalists, activists. Recruitment operations. Intelligence gathering. Operates in Mogadishu, Kismayo, Baidoa. Cross-border operations to Kenya, Ethiopia.

AUSSOM (Successor to ATMIS)

African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) took over from ATMIS January 2025.[6]

Reduced troop numbers. Ethiopian, Kenyan, Ugandan, Djiboutian contingents (varying). Ethiopian contingent contested after Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU dispute. Funding challenges. Continuing counter-Al-Shabaab role.

US Strike Campaign

US AFRICOM continuing strike operations.[7]

Targeted killings of Al-Shabaab and ISIS-Somalia leaders. Manda Bay operations (Kenya-based). Continuing 2024-2026.

ISIS-Somalia

ISIS-Somalia (Islamic State in Somalia) operates in Puntland Bari region.[8]

Small but active group. Cal Miskaad mountains base. Puntland offensives against them. Financial hub role for wider ISIS network. Rivals rather than allies of Al-Shabaab.

Humanitarian Impact

~6.9M in humanitarian need 2024. ~3.9M IDPs. Al-Shabaab tax on humanitarian access. Convoy attacks. Aid worker targeting. Displaced populations vulnerable to recruitment.

Documented 2025-2026 Events

Continuing Mogadishu hotel attacks. El Adde-type outpost attacks. Assassination of officials. Community elder killings. Cross-border attacks on Kenya (Lamu, Mandera). Cross-border attacks on Ethiopia (Somali Region).

Asylum Implications

Profile Reinforcement

Continuing offensive reinforces Al-Shabaab-related asylum profiles:[9]

Escaped recruits — continuing kill-on-sight risk. Former government/security — continuing targeting. Journalists — continuing targeting. Women in Al-Shabaab territory — continuing dress/movement restrictions. LGBTQ+ — public executions documented. Christian converts — apostasy under Sharia.

MOJ CG Framework Application

MOJ Somalia CG [2014] UKUT 442 continues to govern.[10]

Mogadishu presumed accessible but continuing Al-Shabaab attacks affect analysis. Amniyat operations in Mogadishu documented. Rural south not viable relocation.

Article 15(c) Framework

Elgafaji v Staatssecretaris C-465/07 (CJEU 2009).

Indiscriminate violence in areas of active conflict. Case-specific intensity analysis.

Return Considerations

Mogadishu accessible but with continuing Amniyat risk. Kismayo airport government-controlled but limited access. Somaliland Hargeisa restrictive by clan. Puntland Bosaso restrictive by clan.

Women-Specific 2025-2026 Impact

Al-Shabaab territorial gains re-imposed restrictions. Dress code enforcement. Movement restrictions. Educational restrictions for girls. Forced marriage to Al-Shabaab fighters continuing.

LGBTQ+ Somalis 2025-2026

Article 409 continuing. Al-Shabaab public executions documented. Family and clan violence. No state protection.

Evidence Update

Country Evidence

UN Panel of Experts on Somalia 2024-2025 reports. UN Secretary-General reports on Somalia. UNSOM protection updates. UK CPIN Somalia: Al-Shabaab. ACLED conflict data. Al-Shabaab Amniyat documentation.

Individual Evidence

Prior threat documentation. Family targeting evidence. Medical evidence. Community elder attestations.

Continuing Grant Rates

Al-Shabaab has adapted rather than collapsed. The 2022-2024 government offensive achieved gains that were substantially reversed 2023-2024, and Al-Shabaab's continuing capacity to hold territory, tax communities, forcibly recruit, and strike Mogadishu keeps Somali asylum profiles strong across the board.
UN Panel of Experts on Somalia; UN SG reports on Somalia

Conclusion

Somalia Al-Shabaab update Q2 2026 — continuing offensive in southern regions (Middle Juba, Lower Juba, Bay, Bakool, Lower Shabelle), Mogadishu urban attacks, Amniyat operations, cross-border operations. AUSSOM (post-ATMIS) reduced troop presence. US AFRICOM strikes continuing. ISIS-Somalia in Puntland Bari. Government offensive reversed 2023-2024; Ma'awisley weakened. MOJ Somalia CG framework continues; profile-specific analysis critical. 65-82% grant rates for at-risk profiles. See our companion Somalia analytical article, Al-Shabaab recruitment, and return risk article.