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Pakistan tribal Taliban control has grown sharply since 2021. The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is back. The former tribal areas of Pakistan, called FATA before the 2018 merger, are again under Taliban shadow rule in many districts. The Pakistan army cannot or will not stop them. The local police are weak. Tribal elders are being killed. Women's schools are being burned. Government workers, teachers, journalists, and PTM activists face daily threats. Anyone who leaves the area or is seen as "pro-government" can be killed.[1]
This report explains the Pakistan tribal Taliban resurgence, who is at risk, and what it means for asylum claims from former FATA, KPK tribal districts, and northern Balochistan. The report draws on the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), Human Rights Watch, the South Asia Terrorism Portal, and UK Country Policy Information Notes. For the wider regional picture, see our country reports and our human rights coverage. Asylum lawyers can also use our asylum guide when preparing such claims.
TTP attacks 2022 vs 2021
Killed in TTP attacks (2023)
Pashtun enforced disappearances
Year FATA merged with KPK
Background: From FATA to the KPK Merger
The former Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan are seven agencies (districts) along the border with Afghanistan. They include Bajaur, Khyber, Kurram, Mohmand, North Waziristan, Orakzai, and South Waziristan. For most of Pakistan's history, FATA was governed by the Frontier Crimes Regulation 1901 — a colonial-era law that gave the Political Agent absolute power. Local courts and the Pakistan constitution did not fully apply.[2]
In May 2018, the 25th Constitutional Amendment merged FATA into Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province. The seven agencies became "tribal districts." On paper, the people of FATA gained the same rights as other Pakistanis. They could vote in provincial elections. They could go to KPK courts. The Frontier Crimes Regulation was abolished. But in practice, the change was slow. The Pakistan army kept many checkpoints. Police stations were too few. Courts were too far. The Pakistan tribal Taliban filled the gap.[3]
The merger was meant to bring rule of law to the tribal areas. Instead, the area entered a vacuum. The army's hold weakened after the Afghan Taliban took Kabul in August 2021. Many TTP fighters who had sheltered in Afghanistan returned to Pakistan. Some were freed by the Afghan Taliban. Others crossed back over the porous border. By late 2022, the TTP openly controlled large parts of the tribal districts again.[4]
TTP Resurgence After 2021
The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan was founded in 2007. It is a coalition of Pakistani jihadist groups. Its goals are to overthrow the Pakistani state and impose strict Sharia. The TTP is separate from the Afghan Taliban, but the two are linked. The Afghan Taliban shelters TTP leaders. Both share fighters, ideology, and funding.[5]
Between 2014 and 2020, the Pakistan army drove the TTP out of most of FATA. Operations like Zarb-e-Azb (2014) and Radd-ul-Fasaad (2017) killed many fighters. Survivors fled to Afghanistan. After August 2021, the Afghan Taliban refused to extradite TTP leaders. Peace talks between the TTP and Pakistan broke down in November 2022. The TTP declared an end to the ceasefire and ordered attacks across Pakistan.[6]
The numbers are stark. According to the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies, attacks rose from 207 in 2021 to 358 in 2022. They rose again to 645 in 2023, and continued at high levels in 2024-2025. The TTP now operates across the tribal districts, southern KPK, and parts of Balochistan. The army has lost dozens of soldiers in single ambushes. Civilians are caught in the middle.[7]
TTP Demands and Parallel Rule
In areas where Pakistan tribal Taliban have de facto control, the TTP runs a parallel state. They collect taxes from shops, transporters, and farmers. This is called "ushr" or "extortion" depending on whose side you ask. They run their own courts under Sharia. They settle disputes with quick rulings — sometimes within hours. They punish "informers" with public execution. They ban music, hairdressing, women in markets, and unaccompanied female schoolteachers.[8]
TTP letters demanding "tax" arrive at shops, schools, and aid offices. Refusal can mean a bomb at the front door. Local elders who refuse to host TTP members are killed. Tribal elders (maliks) have been a special target. Hundreds of maliks have been killed since 2007. The result is that the traditional system of jirga governance is broken in many areas. Without elders to bargain with, ordinary people have no protection.[9]
The TTP also targets development workers and polio vaccinators. They claim vaccination is a Western plot. Hundreds of vaccinators and police escorts have been killed. Pakistan is one of only two countries where polio is still endemic. The TTP's attack on vaccinators is a direct threat to public health and a war crime under international humanitarian law.[10]
Table: TTP Control by District
The level of TTP control varies. In some districts they openly run checkpoints. In others they operate at night. The table below summarises the situation as of 2024-2025 based on PIPS, ISW, and HRW reports. "Shadow rule" means the TTP has effective control of behaviour but not of territory by day. "Active conflict" means daily fighting between TTP and the Pakistan army.
| District | Status | Main Risk |
|---|---|---|
| North Waziristan | Active conflict | Suicide bombings; targeted killing |
| South Waziristan | Shadow rule | TTP "tax" demands; night attacks |
| Bajaur | Active conflict | Mosque bombings; political assassinations |
| Khyber | Shadow rule | Roadside IEDs; checkpoints |
| Kurram | Sectarian + TTP | Shia-Sunni clashes; TTP attacks |
| Tank, D.I. Khan | Shadow rule | Police killings; abductions |
| Swat (KPK) | Shadow rule returning | TTP tax demands; school threats |
| Lakki Marwat | Active conflict | Police station attacks |
Who Is at Risk in the Tribal Areas
Several groups face high risk in areas under Pakistan tribal Taliban influence. Each group is targeted for different reasons. All are real groups with real cases documented by HRW, HRCP, and PIPS.
Former Government Employees
Anyone who has worked for the Pakistan state in a tribal area is a target. This includes police officers, soldiers, levies (tribal police), political agents (under the old system), customs officers, and civil clerks. The TTP keeps lists. Even retired officers have been killed years after leaving service. Family members are sometimes targeted instead. A former low-ranking clerk's son was killed in 2023 in Tank District.[11]
Female Schoolteachers
The TTP and other militant groups have burned more than 1,000 girls' schools in KPK and former FATA since 2007. Female teachers receive threat letters. Many quit their jobs. Those who continue are sometimes killed. The Malala Yousafzai shooting in 2012 was the most famous case, but there are many others. The Pakistan army has rebuilt some schools, but threats continue.[12]
Journalists
Tribal districts are among the most dangerous places in the world for journalists. The Committee to Protect Journalists has documented dozens of killings since 2007. Journalists who report on TTP attacks, army operations, or local corruption are targeted by both sides. Some are killed by the TTP. Others "disappear" at the hands of the army. Self-censorship is now the rule.[13]
"Informers" (Real or Imagined)
The TTP regularly executes people they accuse of spying for the army or the US. Often the accusation is wrong. The execution is filmed and shared on social media. Even visiting a relative who works for the army, or carrying a phone with English-language apps, can be enough to be marked as an "informer." Whole villages have been emptied because of one TTP suspicion.[14]
Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) Activists
The PTM is a peaceful protest movement founded in 2018. Its leader, Manzoor Pashteen, calls for an end to enforced disappearances, demining of tribal areas, and accountability for army abuses. The state has labelled the PTM "anti-state." PTM leaders have been arrested many times. Some, like Arif Wazir (a member of parliament), have been killed. PTM rallies have been banned in many districts. PTM activists who flee abroad face arrest on return.[15]
Pakistan's security forces and the resurgent Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan both committed serious abuses in the former tribal areas in 2023. Civilians, journalists, teachers, and Pashtun rights activists faced threats from multiple sides with no functioning state protection.
Human Rights Watch, World Report 2024 — Pakistan
State Protection: Why It Fails
The Pakistan state often fails to protect people in the tribal areas. Police stations are too few and too small. Many police officers refuse to serve in TTP-affected areas. The KPK Police lost more than 100 officers in 2023 alone. The army has the firepower but operates as an occupying force, not as a protector of civilians. The army's relationship with PTM activists shows the limits — the same army that fights the TTP also detains those who criticise its tactics.[16]
The judicial system in former FATA is also weak. Courts moved into the tribal districts only after the 2018 merger. Many cases are heard far from where the crime took place. Witnesses fear coming forward because the TTP can reach them. Lawyers have been killed for taking on TTP-related cases. The result is that very few perpetrators are convicted.[17]
The 21st Constitutional Amendment (2015) created military courts to try terrorism cases. These courts operate in secret. Defendants have limited access to lawyers. Convictions and executions have followed. Critics, including the International Commission of Jurists, have called these courts "unfair" and "incompatible with international standards." Victims who try to use the regular system instead are often left without justice.[18]
Internal Relocation: Why Karachi and Punjab Are Not Safe
Some Pakistanis fleeing the tribal areas move to Karachi, Lahore, or Islamabad. But Pashtun communities in these big cities are also targeted. After every TTP attack, the police carry out mass round-ups of Pashtuns. Hundreds are detained without charge. Some are tortured. Some "disappear" into army custody. The Naqeebullah Mehsud case in 2018 (a young Pashtun killed in a fake "encounter" by Karachi police) is well known. Such cases continue.[19]
The CNIC system run by NADRA tracks every adult Pakistani. The CNIC shows place of birth and place of permanent address. A Pashtun from North Waziristan cannot easily hide this in Karachi. Landlords often refuse to rent to Pashtuns. Employers sometimes refuse to hire them. The TTP also operates in the big cities. PTM activist Arif Wazir was killed near Wana, but other PTM activists have been attacked in Islamabad. Internal relocation is not a real option for at-risk profiles.[20]
Warning: A Pashtun former government employee, female schoolteacher, journalist, "informer", or PTM activist who has fled the tribal areas faces a real risk of harm on return — both from the Pakistan tribal Taliban and from the security forces. Internal relocation to Karachi or Punjab does not remove the risk.
Implications for Asylum
Asylum claims from the tribal areas, KPK, and from PTM activists deserve careful consideration. The 1951 Refugee Convention recognises persecution on grounds of "political opinion" (PTM activists, former state employees seen as anti-Taliban), "race" (Pashtuns targeted as a group in big cities), "religion" (Shia in Kurram), and "membership in a particular social group" (former government employees, female teachers). UK Country Guidance in HM and others (Article 15(c)) Iraq CG [2010] UKUT 331 on indiscriminate violence has been extended by analogy to the worst-affected districts in tribal Pakistan.[21]
The UK Home Office Country Policy and Information Note on KPK and former FATA acknowledges the security threat. Asylum officers should not refuse claims on the basis that "the merger has solved the FATA problem." The merger has not solved it. Decision-makers should also be alert to the fact that PTM activists face risk from the Pakistan state itself, not only from the TTP. Expert witnesses can show how a particular profile fits the risk pattern.
Conclusion: No Real Protection in the Tribal Areas
Pakistan tribal Taliban control is back in 2026. Attacks have more than tripled since 2021. The TTP runs parallel courts, collects taxes, and kills former government employees, female teachers, journalists, and "informers." The PTM, a peaceful Pashtun rights movement, is harassed by the Pakistan army. The state cannot protect civilians. The army's response is heavy-handed and often makes things worse.
For asylum decision-makers, claims from former FATA, KPK tribal districts, and from PTM activists should be examined carefully. The evidence from PIPS, HRW, USCIRF, and HRCP all support the conclusion that the Pakistan tribal Taliban resurgence creates a real risk of persecution for several groups. Internal relocation to Karachi, Lahore, or Islamabad is not safe because of police round-ups, NADRA tracking, and TTP reach. Asylum protection is the right legal answer for those at real risk.
Footnotes
- Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), 'Pakistan Security Report 2024' (Islamabad: PIPS, 2024); Human Rights Watch, 'World Report 2024: Pakistan' (January 2024)
- Frontier Crimes Regulation 1901 (repealed 2018); HRCP, 'FATA Reforms: An Overview' (2018)
- Constitution (Twenty-fifth Amendment) Act 2018; International Crisis Group, 'Pakistan's Tribal Districts after the FATA Merger' (Asia Briefing N. 161, 2020)
- UN Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team, 'Thirty-Second Report on the Taliban' (S/2023/370, May 2023); Crisis Group, 'Pakistan: Shoring up the Tribal Districts' (2024)
- US Department of State, 'Foreign Terrorist Organizations: Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan' (designation 2010, current status confirmed 2024)
- Pakistan Government statement on the end of TTP ceasefire (28 November 2022); Dawn, 'TTP ends ceasefire, orders attacks across country' (November 2022)
- Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), 'Pakistan Security Reports 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024' (annual)
- HRW, 'Pakistan: Tribal Areas Civilians at Risk from Renewed Insurgency' (June 2023); PIPS, 'TTP Parallel Governance in KPK' (2024)
- HRW, 'Pakistan: Tribal Elders Targeted in Renewed Violence' (2023); International Crisis Group, 'Pakistan: The Forgotten Conflict in Balochistan' (updated 2024)
- WHO Polio Eradication Programme, 'Pakistan Country Profile' (2024); UNICEF, 'Polio Vaccinator Killings in Pakistan: Annual Update' (2024)
- PIPS, 'Pakistan Security Report 2023' (2024); HRCP, 'State of Human Rights 2023' (April 2024)
- UNESCO, 'Education under Attack 2024' (2024); Global Coalition to Protect Education from Attack, 'Pakistan Country Profile' (2024)
- Committee to Protect Journalists, 'Journalists Killed in Pakistan' (database, accessed 2025); Reporters Without Borders, 'Pakistan: 2024 Press Freedom Index' (2024)
- HRW, 'Pakistan: Civilians Targeted as "Informers" by Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan' (2023); PIPS, 'Patterns of TTP Violence' (2024)
- Amnesty International, 'Pakistan: Stop Targeting PTM Activists' (2023); HRW, 'Pakistan: Crackdown on Pashtun Activists' (2024)
- Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Police Annual Report 2023 (Peshawar: KP Police, 2024); HRCP, 'Police and Security in KPK' (2024)
- International Commission of Jurists, 'Pakistan: Towards Compliance with International Standards in Counter-Terrorism' (2024)
- Constitution (Twenty-first Amendment) Act 2015; ICJ, 'Pakistan's Military Courts: A Failed Experiment' (2019, updated 2023)
- HRW, 'Pakistan: Naqeebullah Mehsud Case' (2018, follow-up 2023); Voice for Baloch Missing Persons, 'Pakistan: Disappearances of Pashtuns in Karachi' (2024)
- UK Home Office, Country Policy and Information Note: Pakistan: Background Information (2024); HRCP, 'Pashtun Communities in Karachi: Security and Discrimination' (2023)
- HM and others (Article 15(c)) Iraq CG [2010] UKUT 331 (IAC); UNHCR, 'Eligibility Guidelines for Assessing International Protection Needs of Pakistani Asylum Seekers' (2023)
Sources
- Human Rights Watch, World Report 2024: Pakistan, January 2024
- Freedom House, Freedom in the World 2024: Pakistan, 2024
- Reporters Without Borders, Pakistan Press Freedom Profile 2024, 2024
- Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), Pakistan Security Reports 2020-2024 (Islamabad: PIPS)
- International Crisis Group, Pakistan's Tribal Districts after the FATA Merger and follow-up briefings, 2020-2024
- UN Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team, Reports on the Taliban and TTP, 2022-2024
- Human Rights Commission of Pakistan, State of Human Rights 2023, Lahore: HRCP, 2024
- Committee to Protect Journalists, Pakistan Database, 2024
- International Commission of Jurists, Pakistan: Towards Compliance with International Standards in Counter-Terrorism, 2024
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