Mexico: New Cartel Territories Mapped — 2026 Security Update

Last updated: 7 October 2026

Photo: OTB Albuquerque-522 - Office of Public Affairs

The Mexico cartel update for early 2026 reflects significant changes in territorial control following the September 2024 split of the Sinaloa Cartel into the Chapitos and Mayos factions. The internal Sinaloa war has reshaped power dynamics across northwestern Mexico, while CJNG continues to expand into former Sinaloa territories and beyond. Furthermore, smaller groups have emerged, opportunistic alliances have shifted, and new conflict zones have opened across the country. As a result, country conditions for asylum analysis have changed materially since 2024. This security update maps the new territorial reality and outlines implications for Mexican asylum claims.[1]

For background, see cartel violence in Mexico.

The Sinaloa Cartel Split

The September 2024 split of the Sinaloa Cartel — triggered by the US arrest of Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada in July 2024 — created two warring factions. The "Chapitos" (sons of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán): controlled by Iván Archivaldo and Jesús Alfredo Guzmán; centred in central Sinaloa. The "Mayos" (loyalists of El Mayo Zambada): led by Mayo's son Ismael "Mayito Flaco" Zambada Sicairos; centred in western Sinaloa. Furthermore, the conflict has produced extreme violence in Culiacán, Mazatlán, and surrounding areas. The Mexican Army has deployed in numbers to the state. As a result, Sinaloa state — historically a Sinaloa Cartel monopoly — is now a war zone. Therefore, asylum claims from Sinaloa state applicants have substantially strengthened country evidence.[2]

CJNG Expansion

CJNG continues its multi-year expansion. By 2026, CJNG has presence or operations in: Jalisco (home territory); Michoacán (in conflict with Cárteles Unidos); Guanajuato; Veracruz; Zacatecas; Colima; Chiapas; Quintana Roo; parts of Sinaloa post-2024 split; Sonora; Baja California. Furthermore, CJNG has increasingly internationalised — operations in the US, Europe (especially Spain), and Asia. As a result, CJNG's reach is unprecedented for a Mexican cartel. Therefore, applicants targeted by CJNG anywhere in Mexico face nationwide risk, defeating internal relocation arguments.[3]

Other Major Groups

Beyond Sinaloa and CJNG, other major groups remain influential. Cartel del Noreste (CDN): operates in Tamaulipas; successor to Los Zetas; particularly violent. Cartel del Golfo (CDG): historical Tamaulipas presence; weakened but persistent. La Familia Michoacana / Cárteles Unidos: Michoacán; in conflict with CJNG; uses self-defence force narratives. Caborca Cartel (Sonora): controlled by Caro Quintero family; weakened by Caro Quintero's 2022 capture. Furthermore, dozens of smaller regional groups operate in specific states (Mexicles in Chihuahua, Pueblos Unidos in Michoacán, etc.). As a result, the cartel landscape is more fragmented than 5 years ago. Therefore, regional analysis is essential.[4]

Violence Dynamics 2025-2026

Violence dynamics in 2025-2026 include: (1) Increased cartel-on-cartel killings in conflict zones; (2) Civilian deaths from crossfire; (3) Targeted assassinations of politicians (2024 election campaign violence); (4) Targeted assassinations of journalists; (5) Targeted disappearances of cartel members' rivals; (6) Mass kidnappings on highways (Tamaulipas, Sinaloa); (7) Violence against migrants (Central American migrants, especially in transit). Furthermore, the homicide rate has remained around 30,000-35,000 annually. As a result, the security situation is not stable. Therefore, country evidence should reflect 2026 conditions, not pre-2024 reports.[5]

"The 2024-2026 reconfiguration of Mexican organised crime represents the most significant shift in cartel dynamics since the fragmentation of Los Zetas a decade ago. Asylum claims must reflect the new realities."International Crisis Group, Mexico Briefing 2026

Asylum Implications

The 2026 cartel updates have direct asylum implications. (1) Sinaloa-state applicants benefit from new evidence of internal war and elevated violence. (2) Michoacán, Guerrero, Guanajuato applicants face documented intensified CJNG conflict. (3) Internal relocation arguments are weaker — applicant could be targeted by either of two warring Sinaloa factions, or by CJNG across more states. (4) Country expert reports based on pre-2024 evidence need updating. (5) Subsidiary protection under Article 15(c) QD is more plausible for high-violence regions. Furthermore, the Sheinbaum administration (since October 2024) has not yet shifted security policy substantively. As a result, the 2026 conditions are as challenging as or worse than 2023-2024.[6]

Government Response

The Sheinbaum government (October 2024-present) has continued the "abrazos no balazos" (hugs not bullets) general strategy of the previous AMLO administration, with some modifications. Increased Army deployment in Sinaloa; some operations against high-value targets; continued reliance on the National Guard. Furthermore, the government has resisted US pressure to designate cartels as foreign terrorist organisations (which the Trump administration in the US has pursued). As a result, the government's response has not fundamentally altered the cartel landscape. Therefore, state protection arguments remain weak even with the new administration.[7]

US Pressure and Cross-Border Dynamics

The US has applied significant pressure on Mexico in 2025-2026. The Trump administration designated several cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organisations in 2025. Furthermore, the US has imposed sanctions, expanded extradition cooperation, and pressured Mexico on fentanyl trafficking. The implications for asylum: (1) US designations may strengthen asylum claims (formal recognition that cartels are extremist organisations); (2) Cross-border tensions may complicate cartel operations; (3) US deportations to Mexico of non-Mexican third-country nationals create new risks; (4) Border militarisation affects asylum-seeker access. As a result, the cross-border dimension is increasingly important. Therefore, asylum analyses should engage with the bilateral dynamic.[8]

Conclusion: A Changed Landscape

The Mexican cartel landscape in 2026 differs materially from 2023-2024. The Sinaloa Cartel split, CJNG expansion, and multiple regional conflicts have intensified violence and changed the territorial map. Furthermore, the implications for asylum are significant: more applicants face heightened risk, internal relocation is even less viable, and country expert evidence needs updating. As a result, asylum representatives should refresh evidence and arguments to reflect 2026 realities. Therefore, this security update should be incorporated into current Mexican asylum bundles.

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