Expert Witness Insights: Week 2 — Key Country Analysis

Photo: World Connections - vickysandoval22

Welcome to Week 2 of our expert witness weekly insights series. Each week our expert team tracks the latest developments in countries that appear most often in asylum claims. This week we cover Somalia, Albania, Nicaragua, and important cross-country updates on domestic violence and LGBTQ+ persecution. These changes affect how claims should be prepared right now. If you missed the first edition, you can find it in our asylum guide section.[1]

Staying current with country conditions is essential for any asylum practitioner. Outdated evidence weakens even the strongest case. Moreover, the developments this week are urgent. Al-Shabaab has launched a major offensive in southern Somalia. Albania's EU accession talks continue while protection gaps remain wide open. Nicaragua has stripped citizenship from hundreds more critics. Additionally, new GREVIO reports and the enforcement of Uganda's Anti-Homosexuality Act raise serious concerns for claims based on gender and sexuality.

Somalia: Al-Shabaab Southern Offensive and IDP Crisis

Al-Shabaab launched a significant offensive in southern Somalia in March 2026. The group recaptured several towns in the Lower Shabelle and Middle Juba regions that government forces had taken during the 2023-2024 offensive. This reversal has created a new wave of internal displacement. UNHCR estimates that over 180,000 people fled their homes in March alone. The total number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Somalia now stands at approximately 3.8 million.[2]

The security situation in Mogadishu also remains unstable. Al-Shabaab carries out regular attacks in the capital, including vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) targeting government buildings and hotels. Furthermore, minority clan members face particular danger. Members of the Bantu, Midgan, and other marginalised groups cannot access the clan-based protection systems that shield majority clan members. Consequently, internal relocation to Mogadishu is not a safe option for members of minority clans.[3]

For asylum practitioners, these developments have clear implications. First, the Al-Shabaab resurgence undermines the Home Office argument that government-controlled areas are safe. Second, the IDP crisis shows that even Somalis who relocate internally face serious humanitarian risks. Third, minority clan members face a double threat: Al-Shabaab violence and exclusion from clan protection. Expert evidence should address the specific clan identity of the applicant and whether that clan can provide protection in the proposed relocation area.

Albania: Blood Feud Enforcement Gaps and EU Accession

Albania continues its EU accession negotiations. The European Commission's latest progress report, published in February 2026, notes improvements in judicial reform and anti-corruption measures. However, the report also identifies continuing gaps in the protection of victims of blood feuds. The Kanun, a traditional code of honour, still governs blood feud practices in northern Albania, particularly in the Shkoder, Lezhe, and Kukes regions. Despite being illegal under Albanian law, blood feuds continue to cause deaths.[4]

The Albanian government reports that it has strengthened its coordination centres for blood feud victims. However, civil society organisations such as the National Reconciliation Committee report that many families remain in self-isolation. Children are kept out of school. Entire families live confined to their homes because they fear being killed if they go outside. Moreover, police response to blood feud threats remains inconsistent. In rural northern areas, police lack the resources and sometimes the willingness to intervene in what they view as private family matters.[5]

For practitioners, the EU accession process creates a challenge. The Home Office may argue that Albania is becoming a "safe country" because it is an EU candidate. However, candidate status does not mean protection is available. The gap between Albanian law and its enforcement remains significant. Expert evidence should address the specific region where the feud originates, the history of the feud, and whether the Albanian authorities have actually provided protection in similar cases. Our country reports section contains detailed analysis on Albania.

Nicaragua: Citizenship Stripping and Religious Persecution

Nicaragua's government under Daniel Ortega has intensified its campaign against critics. In the first quarter of 2026, the National Assembly passed new legislation allowing the state to strip citizenship from individuals deemed "traitors to the homeland." This follows the mass denationalisation of over 300 people in 2023 and 2024, including writers, journalists, priests, and former government officials. The total number of Nicaraguans who have lost their citizenship now exceeds 450.[6]

Religious persecution has also intensified. The Catholic Church remains a primary target. Bishop Rolando Alvarez, sentenced to 26 years in prison before being exiled to the Vatican, is only the most prominent example. Dozens of priests have been expelled or forced to flee. Furthermore, the government has closed religious schools and confiscated church property. Protestant churches that criticise the government face similar treatment. The Organisation of American States has condemned these actions as violations of fundamental rights.[7]

The Nicaraguan government's systematic use of citizenship stripping, arbitrary detention, and forced exile constitutes a sustained campaign of persecution against political opponents and religious leaders.
Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, Report on Nicaragua, March 2026

Over 600,000 Nicaraguans are now estimated to be living in exile, primarily in Costa Rica and the United States. For practitioners, Nicaraguan claims increasingly involve citizenship stripping, which creates a statelessness risk. Moreover, religious persecution claims are strengthened by the well-documented pattern of targeting the Catholic Church. Expert evidence should address whether the applicant's profile matches the categories targeted by the Ortega government and the risk of citizenship stripping upon return.

Cross-Country: Domestic Violence and LGBTQ+ Persecution

Two thematic developments this week affect claims from multiple countries. First, the Council of Europe's Group of Experts on Action against Violence against Women (GREVIO) has published new baseline evaluation reports. These reports assess how well countries implement the Istanbul Convention on preventing domestic violence. The latest reports cover Albania, Turkey, and Georgia. All three show significant gaps between legislation and enforcement. In Albania, GREVIO found that domestic violence remains widespread and that protection orders are not consistently enforced. In Turkey, withdrawals from the Istanbul Convention in 2021 have led to a measurable decline in protection for women.[8]

Second, LGBTQ+ persecution continues to escalate in several countries. Uganda's Anti-Homosexuality Act of 2023, which includes the death penalty for "aggravated homosexuality," is being actively enforced. Reports from Human Rights Watch document arrests, mob violence, and evictions targeting LGBTQ+ individuals. In Azerbaijan, security services conducted raids on LGBTQ+ gathering places in early 2026. At least 40 individuals were detained and subjected to forced medical examinations. Amnesty International has documented a pattern of such raids over the past two years.[9]

For practitioners handling domestic violence or LGBTQ+ claims, these developments provide fresh evidence. GREVIO reports carry significant weight in tribunals because they are independent expert assessments. Furthermore, the Uganda and Azerbaijan developments show that state persecution of LGBTQ+ individuals is active, not theoretical. Expert evidence should reference these specific reports and connect them to the applicant's individual circumstances. Visit our human rights section for further analysis.

Week 2 Key Updates by Country

Practical Takeaways for Lawyers

These developments translate into several practical steps. First, update your country evidence bundles immediately. If you have a Somali case involving a minority clan, the Al-Shabaab offensive directly affects the internal relocation argument. Second, for Albanian blood feud cases, use the GREVIO report alongside existing evidence to demonstrate that Albanian law enforcement does not protect victims in practice.[10]

Third, Nicaraguan cases now have an additional dimension. Citizenship stripping creates a statelessness risk that must be addressed in submissions. The Home Office or immigration judge needs to understand that returning an applicant could result in them being stateless. Fourth, LGBTQ+ claims from Uganda and Azerbaijan benefit from the most recent Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International reporting. These reports provide the independent, verifiable evidence that judges need.

Finally, consider whether your client's case requires a tailored expert report. Generic country evidence helps, but a report that connects the latest developments to your client's specific profile is far more persuasive. Expert reports should reference the exact developments, legal instruments, and dates outlined above.

How to Request an Expert Report

Each report follows the standards expected by UK tribunals and US immigration courts. This includes a statement of truth, the expert's qualifications, a methodology section, and OSCOLA-compliant referencing. Furthermore, our experts are available to give oral testimony at hearings by video link or in person.

Conclusion

Week 2 of our expert witness weekly insights covers developments with direct implications for asylum cases. Somalia's Al-Shabaab resurgence makes internal relocation arguments weaker. Albania's enforcement gaps persist despite EU accession progress. Nicaragua's citizenship stripping campaign creates new legal challenges. Additionally, LGBTQ+ persecution in Uganda and Azerbaijan provides fresh evidence for gender and sexuality-based claims. Use these updates to strengthen your current cases and commission expert reports where they can make the difference. We will return next week with analysis of further developments. If you have a specific country or issue you want us to cover, contact our team through the expert witness directory.[11]