Expert Witness Insights: Week 1 — Key Country Analysis

Last updated: 5 October 2026

Photo: We Stand with Ukraine - Mobilus In Mobili

Welcome to the first edition of our expert witness weekly insights series. This weekly digest brings you the latest developments from our expert witness team, covering key changes across countries that regularly feature in asylum claims. Each week, we analyse how recent events affect asylum cases and provide actionable guidance for legal practitioners. Staying current with country conditions is not optional in asylum work. It is essential. Outdated evidence can undermine an otherwise strong claim, while timely updates can strengthen a borderline case.[1]

This week's focus covers four countries: Russia, Afghanistan, Iran, and Eritrea. Each has seen significant developments in recent months that directly affect how claims should be prepared and argued. Whether you are a solicitor preparing a tribunal bundle or a barrister drafting skeleton arguments, these country condition updates provide the context you need to support your clients effectively.

Russia: New Mobilisation Amendments and Escalating Repression

Russia has introduced further amendments to its mobilisation legislation in early 2026. The new provisions expand the categories of individuals subject to call-up and increase penalties for draft evasion. Under the amended Federal Law on Mobilisation, men aged 18 to 65 can now be mobilised without prior military experience. Furthermore, electronic summonses delivered through the Gosuslugi portal are legally binding from the moment of dispatch, regardless of whether the recipient has actually read them. Failure to report within 20 days carries criminal penalties of up to 10 years' imprisonment.[2]

These changes have significant implications for asylum claims. Russian men of military age who have left the country face a dual risk upon return: criminal prosecution for draft evasion and forced conscription into combat operations. Moreover, the Kremlin has intensified its crackdown on anti-war dissent. OVD-Info reports that over 20,000 individuals have been detained for anti-war activities since February 2022. New amendments to Article 207.3 of the Criminal Code now carry sentences of up to 15 years for "discrediting" the armed forces. Consequently, anyone who has publicly expressed anti-war views, even on social media, faces a serious risk of prosecution upon return.[3]

For practitioners, these developments strengthen claims based on political opinion (anti-war stance) and membership of a particular social group (draft-age men). The internal relocation argument is particularly weak in Russian cases due to the nationwide reach of the FSB and the integrated digital summons system. Expert evidence should address the specific amendments and how the Gosuslugi system eliminates any possibility of evading mobilisation through internal relocation.

Afghanistan: Taliban Enforcement Updates

The Taliban's enforcement of its interpretation of Sharia law continues to tighten across Afghanistan. In the first quarter of 2026, the Ministry for the Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice has issued new directives expanding restrictions on women's movement, education, and employment. Women are now prohibited from visiting public parks, gyms, and bathhouses in all provinces. Additionally, the ban on girls' secondary education remains firmly in place, with no credible indication of reversal.[4]

The impact on asylum claims is substantial. UNHCR's updated guidance, published in February 2026, reaffirms that Afghan women and girls constitute a particular social group for the purposes of the 1951 Refugee Convention. The guidance states that the cumulative effect of Taliban restrictions amounts to persecution. Furthermore, UNHCR explicitly advises against returning any Afghan nationals to Afghanistan, citing the absence of rule of law and the systematic violation of fundamental rights. This guidance carries significant weight in UK and EU asylum determinations.[5]

For male claimants, the situation also remains dire. Former government officials, military personnel, and those who worked with international organisations continue to face targeted persecution. Reports from Human Rights Watch document summary executions, enforced disappearances, and torture of individuals associated with the former republic. Consequently, claims from Afghan nationals across all profiles should be supported by the latest UNHCR guidance and expert evidence addressing the specific risk faced by the claimant's profile.

Iran: Post-Mahsa Amini Crackdown Continues

Iran's security apparatus continues its crackdown on dissent following the Woman, Life, Freedom protests that erupted after Mahsa Amini's death in September 2022. Although the mass street protests have subsided, the state's response has evolved into a sustained campaign of repression targeting identified participants, their families, and civil society more broadly. The IRGC and intelligence services maintain active files on tens of thousands of individuals identified through surveillance footage, social media monitoring, and informant networks.[6]

Recent developments include the execution of several protest participants in early 2026, despite international appeals for clemency. Moreover, Iran has expanded its use of the death penalty for protest-related charges, including the vaguely defined offence of "moharebeh" (enmity against God). Amnesty International reports that at least 30 individuals face execution for their participation in the 2022-2023 protests. The judiciary has also increased sentences for women arrested for defying the mandatory hijab law, with some receiving prison terms of up to 10 years.[7]

For practitioners handling Iranian asylum claims, these developments reinforce several key arguments. First, the Iranian state's capacity for retrospective prosecution means that anyone who participated in protests, even years ago, faces a continuing risk. Second, the monitoring of diaspora activities is well documented. Iran tracks the online activities of its nationals abroad, and returning individuals may face prosecution for social media posts made outside the country. Third, women who have adopted a lifestyle inconsistent with Iran's compulsory hijab laws face a real risk upon return. Expert evidence should address the specific surveillance capabilities of the IRGC and the applicant's individual risk profile.

The severity of the crackdown, the scale of surveillance, and the continuing pattern of executions demonstrate that the risk to returned protesters and dissidents remains acute and shows no sign of diminishing.
Amnesty International, Iran: Ongoing Crackdown Report, March 2026

Eritrea: New UNHCR Guidance and Expert Witness Weekly Insights

UNHCR has published updated eligibility guidelines for Eritrean asylum seekers in early 2026. The guidance confirms that conditions in Eritrea remain among the most restrictive in the world. The indefinite national service programme continues to subject the population to what the UN Commission of Inquiry previously described as enslavement. Conscripts serve for decades with no prospect of discharge. Furthermore, the shoot-to-kill policy at the border remains in effect for those attempting to leave the country without permission.[8]

The updated guidance specifically addresses the risk to failed asylum seekers returned to Eritrea. UNHCR states that Eritreans who left the country illegally, and particularly those who sought asylum abroad, are at risk of detention, torture, and forced conscription upon return. The Eritrean government views departure without an exit visa as an act of treason. Consequently, the mere act of leaving the country and claiming asylum constitutes a risk factor. This has important implications for claims based on illegal exit and sur place activities.[9]

Additionally, there is no viable internal relocation alternative within Eritrea. The country operates as a totalitarian state with comprehensive surveillance and control mechanisms. The government's reach extends to every district, and there is no area where an individual can live beyond state control. For practitioners, Eritrean cases should be relatively straightforward when supported by the latest UNHCR guidance and expert evidence confirming the applicant's nationality and profile.

This Week's Key Updates at a Glance

What This Means for Practitioners

These developments translate into several practical steps for legal practitioners. First, always check for the latest country guidance before finalising any asylum bundle. Country conditions change rapidly. A CPIN or State Department report from six months ago may already be outdated. Second, use these updates to strengthen specific legal arguments. For example, the Russian mobilisation amendments directly address the viability of internal relocation and the severity of the consequences for draft evaders.[10]

Third, consider whether your client's case requires an expert report that addresses these specific developments. Generic country evidence is helpful, but a tailored expert report that connects the latest developments to your client's individual profile is far more persuasive. Furthermore, when presenting these arguments at tribunal, reference the specific legal instruments and dates. Judges are more likely to give weight to evidence that is precise and current.

Finally, keep an eye on upcoming country guidance decisions. The UK Upper Tribunal is expected to issue new country guidance cases for several of these countries in 2026. These decisions will set binding precedents that affect how claims are assessed. Staying informed through our weekly updates ensures you are prepared when these decisions drop. For a comprehensive overview of the asylum process, visit our main guide.

Browse Our Full Expert Directory

Our network of expert witnesses covers over 40 countries and a wide range of thematic areas. Each expert holds recognised academic credentials and extensive field experience in their region of specialisation. Whether your case involves political persecution in Russia, gender-based violence in Afghanistan, religious persecution in Iran, or national service evasion in Eritrea, we can match you with the right specialist. Visit our expert witness directory to search by country, theme, or expert name.[11]

Expert reports are prepared in accordance with the standards expected by UK tribunals and US immigration courts. Each report includes a statement of truth, the expert's qualifications, a methodology section, and OSCOLA-compliant referencing. Furthermore, our experts are available to give oral testimony at hearings by video link or in person. For detailed country reports and background information, visit our country reports section.

Conclusion

This first edition of our expert witness weekly insights covers four countries experiencing significant developments that affect asylum claims. Russia's expanded mobilisation laws, the Taliban's continued enforcement in Afghanistan, Iran's ongoing crackdown on dissent, and Eritrea's updated UNHCR guidance all carry direct implications for cases currently before tribunals and immigration courts. Stay informed, use the latest evidence, and commission expert reports where they can make the difference. We will be back next week with analysis of further developments across our key countries. If you have a specific country or issue you would like us to cover, contact our expert team through the directory.