Expert Witness Insights: Week 9 — Key Country Analysis

Last updated: 5 October 2026

Photo: United Nations Geneva 2010-06-30 - Henry Mühlpfordt

This week's expert witness weekly insights round-up covers the country developments most relevant to asylum cases in mid-June 2026. Our country experts have tracked significant changes across the post-Soviet space, the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia. This Week 9 edition highlights the developments practitioners should factor into pending cases and country expert reports.[1]

The analysis draws on our network of country experts and the primary sources they monitor — Viasna, Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, Forum 18, ILGA-Europe, the UN OHCHR, the UN Special Rapporteur on Belarus, the UN Committee Against Torture, RSF, and regional human rights organisations. For the wider framework on how this analysis is produced, see our return risk methodology guide.

This Week at a Glance

Belarus: Continuing Consolidation

Belarus continues the post-2020 consolidation. Our CIS experts report new in absentia trials of exiled opposition figures, continued Kalinouski Regiment prosecutions, and tightened restrictions on family members of imprisoned activists. The post-January 2025 election environment shows no relaxation. See our detailed analyses of the Belarus 2026 update and return risk.[2]

Tajikistan: Religious Prosecutions Continue

Tajikistan continues "extremism" prosecutions of Muslims categorised as "Salafi." Forum 18 documented new cases in May 2026. The Pamiri community continues to face restrictions following the 2022 Khorog crackdown. The Crocus Moscow attack continues to affect Tajik returnees. See our companion Tajikistan 2026 update.[3]

Azerbaijan: Crackdown Continues

The post-COP29 crackdown in Azerbaijan continues. Our CIS experts report continued journalist arrests and extended pre-trial detentions for opposition figures. The June 2025 AbzasMedia convictions remain the template. As a result, journalists, opposition party members, and diaspora critics all face elevated risk on return.[4]

Middle East / North Africa

Across the region, our experts report continued consolidation patterns. Egypt's Cybercrime Law prosecutions of online critics confirm sur place risk for diaspora. Algeria's Article 87 bis continues to be used against Hirak activists. Tunisia's Decree 54 continues to produce prosecutions of lawyers and journalists. The patterns reinforce existing country guidance frameworks.[5]

Central Asia: Mahalla and Extremism

Uzbek mahalla-reported prosecutions of independent Muslims continue. The post-Mirziyoyev "liberalisation" narrative has not translated into reduced religious prosecutions. See our companion analyses of the Uzbek mahalla system and religious registration laws in Central Asia.[6]

The value of weekly country monitoring is that it keeps expert reports current. Country conditions change. A report relying on conditions from six months ago may understate present risk. Weekly insights help practitioners decide when to commission updated reports.
The Human Rights expert network, Week 9 review

Practitioner Takeaways

1. Update Belarus and Tajikistan reports for 2026 hearings — conditions confirmed.
2. Strengthen sur place arguments for Egyptian and Belarusian diaspora applicants.
3. Document Salafi-categorisation prosecutions in Central Asia cases.
4. Address continued retrospective ID in Belarus 2020 cases.
5. Commission updated expert reports where conditions have changed. See our country expert reports guide.

Conclusion

Week 9 has confirmed the documented consolidation of conditions across the post-Soviet space, the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia. The developments reinforce existing country guidance frameworks and strengthen pending cases in several profiles. Practitioners should ensure that country expert evidence reflects the most current conditions.

For applicants and representatives, the practical takeaway is to keep country evidence current and commission updated reports where developments have raised risk. Our expert directory can match a specialist to your case. See next week's insights for further developments.