Expert Witness Insights: Week 8 — Key Country Analysis

Last updated: 16 September 2026

Photo: Sphere within Sphere, 1991/93 - Paul Lowry

This week's expert witness weekly insights round-up covers the country developments most relevant to asylum cases in late May 2026. Our country experts have tracked significant changes across the Middle East, North Africa, the post-Soviet space, and South Asia. This Week 8 edition highlights the developments that practitioners should factor into pending cases and country expert reports.[1]

The analysis draws on our network of country experts and the primary sources they monitor — Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, Forum 18, the UN OHCHR, Reporters Without Borders, ILGA-Europe, and regional human rights organisations. For the wider framework on how this analysis is produced, see our return risk methodology guide.

This Week at a Glance

Azerbaijan: Crackdown Deepens

The post-COP29 crackdown in Azerbaijan continues. Our CIS experts report new journalist arrests and extended pre-trial detentions for opposition figures. The June 2025 AbzasMedia convictions have set a template that prosecutors continue to apply. As a result, journalists, opposition party members, and diaspora critics all face elevated risk on return. See our detailed analysis in the Azerbaijan 2026 crackdown update.[2]

Egypt: Cybercrime Prosecutions Continue

Egyptian authorities continue to use the 2018 Cybercrime Law against online critics. Our Middle East experts note that diaspora social media activity is increasingly producing in absentia prosecutions. This strengthens sur place claims for Egyptian applicants. See our analyses of Egypt's Anti-Terrorism and Cybercrime Laws and Egypt return risk.[3]

Maghreb: Decree 54 and Article 87 bis

In Tunisia, additional Decree 54 prosecutions of lawyers reinforce the criminalisation of political expression. In Algeria, renewed Hirak-related prosecutions under the expanded Article 87 bis terrorism definition confirm the documented pattern. Both developments strengthen asylum claims for legal, journalistic, and activist profiles. See our companion analyses of Tunisia Decree 54 and Algeria Hirak prosecutions.[4]

South Asia: Pakistan Customary Violence

Our South Asia experts continue to document honour violence and jirga rulings across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The 2016 legal reforms have not changed the empirical reality on the ground. Women, inter-religious couples, and those who defy customary norms remain at risk with limited state protection. See our analyses of honour violence in Pashtun communities and jirgas in KP.[5]

Central Asia: Religious Prosecutions

Our CIS experts continue to track religious prosecutions across Central Asia. In Uzbekistan, mahalla-reported cases against independent Muslims and converts persist despite the Mirziyoyev liberalisation narrative. See our analyses of the Uzbek mahalla system and religious registration laws in Central Asia.[6]

The value of weekly country monitoring is that it keeps expert reports current. Country conditions change. A report relying on conditions from six months ago may understate present risk. Weekly insights help practitioners decide when to commission updated reports.
The Human Rights expert network, Week 8 review

Practitioner Takeaways

1. Update Azerbaijan and Egypt reports for 2026 hearings — conditions have worsened.
2. Strengthen sur place arguments for Egyptian and Azerbaijani diaspora applicants.
3. Document jirga and honour patterns specifically for Pakistani KP cases.
4. Address mahalla surveillance in Uzbek religious cases.
5. Commission updated expert reports where conditions have changed since the original report. See our country expert reports guide.

Conclusion

Week 8 has confirmed the documented worsening of conditions across the Middle East, North Africa, post-Soviet space, and South Asia. The developments reinforce existing country guidance and strengthen pending cases in several profiles. Practitioners should ensure that their country expert evidence reflects the most current conditions.

For applicants and representatives, the practical takeaway is to keep country evidence current and to commission updated reports where developments have raised risk. Our expert directory can match a specialist to your case. See next week's insights for further developments.