Expert Witness Insights: Week 6 — Key Country Analysis

Last updated: 15 October 2026

Photo: 34th Session of the United Nations Human Rights Council - United States Mission Geneva

Expert witness weekly insights for Week 6 of 2026 covers key country developments that have implications for asylum claims and country expert work. This weekly round-up draws on developments in Sudan, Iran, Russia, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, and China — countries that together account for a substantial share of contemporary asylum claims. Furthermore, several developments this week directly affect existing country guidance and Home Office CPINs. As a result, expert witnesses and practitioners should be aware of the updates summarised below and update report templates and case strategies accordingly. This article distils the country-level analysis into actionable insights.[1]

See also: expert witness database.

Sudan: Continuing Conflict, No Safe Area

Sudan continues to be the world's largest displacement crisis. This week saw renewed RSF advances in the White Nile and Sennar regions, with significant civilian displacement. Furthermore, the UNHCR issued an updated technical note reiterating its April 2025 position of non-return for all Sudanese. The expert witness implications are clear: (1) country evidence must include the most recent OCHA situation reports; (2) the internal relocation argument should be addressed proactively in all Sudanese reports; (3) Masalit, Fur, and Zaghawa applicants from Darfur should benefit from the US genocide determination evidence; (4) reports based on pre-2025 country guidance need updating. As a result, Sudanese cases require active monitoring of country conditions.[2]

Iran: Continuing Crackdowns Post-2022 Protests

Iran continues to apply harsh measures against protesters, journalists, women's rights activists, and the Kurdish community in the aftermath of the 2022-2023 protests over Mahsa Amini's death. This week's developments include reports of additional executions for "moharebeh" (waging war against God) and continued enforcement of the Hijab Law. Furthermore, the UN Special Rapporteur on Iran has issued an update flagging continuing severe persecution. The expert witness implications: (1) reports for Iranian women's rights activists, journalists, Kurds, and converts should engage with the post-2022 crackdown; (2) sur place activity is heavily monitored — applicants should preserve social media evidence; (3) ECHR case law on Iran-related Article 3 protection remains a key authority.[3]

Russia: 207.3 Enforcement Continues

Russia's enforcement of Article 207.3 (false information about the armed forces) and Article 280.3 (discrediting the armed forces) continues. This week saw additional in absentia convictions of Russian journalists in exile, including additional cases involving foreign agent designation. Furthermore, the FSB has been reported to have contacted family members of exiled journalists with renewed intensity. The expert witness implications: (1) Russian journalist and dissident claims should document Article 207.3 charges, foreign agent designation, and family pressure; (2) sur place activity (continued reporting from exile) strengthens claims; (3) Russia country expert reports should engage with the post-February 2022 legal architecture comprehensively.[4]

Afghanistan: Continuing Deterioration

Afghanistan continues to face a severe human rights crisis under Taliban rule. UNAMA's most recent report documents continued repression of women's rights, ethnic minorities (Hazara), and former Republic-era officials. Furthermore, the Taliban's "Vice and Virtue" laws remain in force, criminalising women's movement and dress. The expert witness implications: (1) reports for Afghan women, girls, LGBTQ+ persons, Hazara, and former officials are particularly strong; (2) country evidence should cite UNAMA, UN Special Rapporteur, and Amnesty International reports; (3) UNHCR position on Afghanistan remains a non-return position. As a result, Afghan asylum claims remain among the most evidentially robust.[5]

Sri Lanka: PTA Still Active

Sri Lanka's Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) remains in force despite international calls for its repeal. This week, Sri Lankan civil society organisations reported new PTA arrests of Tamils — primarily on basis of alleged LTTE links. Furthermore, the political shift since 2024 has not yet translated into meaningful reforms of the PTA or the military presence in Tamil-majority areas. The expert witness implications: (1) Tamil asylum claims should engage with KK and RS [2021] UKUT 130 guidance; (2) ITJP (International Truth and Justice Project) reports provide current evidence; (3) sur place activity in the diaspora remains relevant to risk.[6]

China: Uyghur and Hong Kong Diaspora Surveillance

Reports of Chinese state surveillance of Uyghur and Hong Kong diaspora communities continued this week, including documented harassment of dissidents in Europe and North America. Furthermore, the UK's Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) issued a statement on transnational repression by foreign states, including China. The expert witness implications: (1) Uyghur and Hong Kong asylum claims should engage with the UN OHCHR Xinjiang Assessment (2022) and the National Security Law; (2) sur place activity must be carefully documented; (3) family members in mainland China are a critical risk vector for the applicant.[7]

Cross-Country Trends

Several cross-country trends emerge from this week's developments. First, transnational repression — states reaching across borders to target their citizens in exile — is intensifying. China, Russia, Iran, and Belarus are notable examples. Second, country guidance updates need to be tracked actively — the speed of country deterioration in places like Sudan and Afghanistan means that even recent guidance can become outdated. Third, UNHCR position papers are increasingly authoritative documents that decision-makers should engage with directly. Furthermore, the consistency of post-2022 patterns (Iran, Russia, Belarus) suggests that authoritarian governments are sharing methodologies. As a result, expert witnesses must take a comparative regional view, not just a country-specific one.[8]

"The acceleration of authoritarian targeting of citizens abroad is one of the defining features of contemporary asylum claims. Expert witnesses must address transnational repression as a distinct dimension of risk."Working observation, Country Expert Practice 2026

Conclusion: Active Monitoring as Core Practice

Weekly insights into key countries are not merely informative — they are essential to maintaining the currency and quality of expert evidence. Furthermore, asylum claims rest on assessments of risk that are sensitive to month-to-month changes in country conditions. As a result, expert witnesses and practitioners should integrate weekly monitoring into their practice. Therefore, the discipline of structured weekly review pays substantial dividends in case outcomes and the strength of expert evidence.

To apply this week's analysis of Sudan, Iran and other countries to an individual claim, commission a report through our expert witness finder.