Expert Witness Insights: Week 5 — Key Country Analysis

Last updated: 16 September 2026

Photo: Geneva - ITU Pictures

This week's expert witness weekly insights cover Week 5 of April-May 2026. Three priority countries lead this digest: Ukraine, Iraq, and Ethiopia. Each has seen significant recent developments. Furthermore, cross-country updates from Sudan, Afghanistan, and Latin America matter for live cases. The expert network monitors these developments daily so that asylum reports reflect current conditions. For broader background, see the country reports section.[1]

Ukraine: Post-Aid Environment and Conscription

Ukraine continues to absorb significant attention. The reduction in Western military aid since late 2024 has produced shifts in the operational situation. Furthermore, Ukraine's mobilisation law amendments of 2024 have intensified domestic conscription enforcement. Therefore, asylum claims by Ukrainian men of military age — particularly those who fled before formal call-up — are increasingly common.[2]

Conscription evasion claims

Ukrainian conscription evasion claims engage UNHCR's 2013 Guidelines on military service. Where the conscript would be deployed to combat zones with documented violations of international humanitarian law, refugee status arguments under Krotov/Sepet principles apply. Furthermore, conscientious objection claims can succeed where the objection is genuine and the punishment for refusal is disproportionate.

Iraq: Continuing Militia Escalation

Iraq's PMF/Hashd al-Shaabi escalation continues into Week 5 of 2026. UNHCHR documentation since the previous week confirms that Tishreen-linked activist targeting has not subsided. Furthermore, social media surveillance of returnees has intensified. As a result, asylum cases from Iraq involving Tishreen activists, journalists, and Sunni Arab returnees from former ISIS areas remain strong.[3]

Ethiopia: Amhara Conflict Continues

Ethiopia's Amhara conflict has continued throughout April-May 2026. UNHCHR documented additional civilian casualties in North Shewa and Wollo districts. Furthermore, mass arrests of ethnic Amharas in Addis Ababa have continued under the August 2023 state of emergency framework. Tigrayan and Oromo profiles continue to face the patterns documented in earlier digests.[4]

Cross-Country Updates

Three cross-country signals stand out this week. First, Sudan's continuing conflict produces growing refugee outflows; UNHCR data shows approximately 8 million displaced inside Sudan and 2.5 million in neighbouring countries. Second, Afghanistan's Taliban authorities have continued enforcement of the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice Law, particularly affecting women. Third, in Latin America, Tren de Aragua-linked cases continue to grow in US asylum filings.[5]

Country conditions evolve faster than asylum decision-making cycles. Expert witnesses bear continuing responsibility to update analysis as situations change.
UK Upper Tribunal, Practice Direction 10: Expert Evidence (2023)

Practical Takeaways for This Week

• Ukraine cases: Commission updated reports addressing the 2024 mobilisation amendments and current operational environment.
• Iraq cases: Use post-Q4 2025 evidence; do not rely solely on 2022 country guidance.
• Ethiopia cases: Engage with Amhara conflict updates and continuing state of emergency detentions.
• Sudan cases: Document ethnic profile and conflict zone of origin specifically.
• Afghanistan cases: Use 2024 Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice Law text and enforcement evidence.
• Latin America cases: Apply current PSG framework with profile-specific evidence.

Conclusion

Week 5 of April-May 2026 produces clear signals across Ukraine, Iraq, Ethiopia, and several other priority countries. Lawyers with live cases should review whether their expert evidence reflects the current state of each country. To commission an updated expert report, use the find expert witness service. For broader country information, see the country reports section. Next week's digest will cover Russia, Iran, and additional Latin American developments.