Expert Witness Insights: Week 16 — Key Country Analysis

Week 16 in the Expert Witness Knowledge Hub series brings a survey of the country situations most affecting asylum outcomes in the current period, drawing together country-specific developments from Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, Iran, Venezuela, Colombia, Honduras, Haiti, Russia, and Brazil into an integrated analytical picture. The purpose of the weekly synthesis is to give legal representatives, applicants, and advocates a rapid orientation to the most relevant recent developments across major countries of origin — what has changed, what remains constant, and how these developments should shape asylum arguments. The framework reflects the accumulated insights from the various country-specific analyses published throughout the preceding period.[1]

The purpose of expert witness knowledge in asylum context is specific — providing authoritative analysis of country conditions and specific patterns that individual applicants may face. Where general Home Office CPINs, US State Department Country Reports, and UNHCR position papers provide baseline documentation, expert witness knowledge fills in specific gaps, provides deeper analysis of particular issues, and applies country expertise to specific applicant circumstances. Understanding what expert witness knowledge can contribute and how it should be presented is essential for effective advocacy.

This week 16 survey emphasises several cross-cutting themes emerging from country-specific developments. The persistence of gender-based persecution across multiple origin countries despite formal legal reforms. The interaction of religious minority persecution with broader authoritarian governance patterns. The impact of criminal governance patterns in Latin American countries producing forced displacement. The systematic patterns of political persecution across multiple regimes. Understanding these cross-cutting themes strengthens individual case arguments by demonstrating that specific patterns applicants face fit within broader documented patterns.

Pakistan: Ongoing Patterns

Pakistan continues to feature prominently in asylum caseloads across major receiving countries. The blasphemy law framework under Article 295-C of the Pakistan Penal Code produces continuing mob violence, judicial persecution, and family displacement. The 2016 Anti-Honour Killing Law closed some loopholes but implementation remains uneven. Forced marriage patterns through jirga, vani, swara, and watta satta continue despite formal prohibitions. Ahmadi persecution under the 2nd Constitutional Amendment 1974 and Ordinance XX 1984 continues systematically.[2]

Key case law framework includes Shah and Islam UKHL 20 as foundational for Pakistani women's protection, MB (Ahmadis) UKUT 431 for Ahmadi protection, KA (Pakistan) UKUT 216 and SM (Pakistan) UKUT 67 for internal relocation analysis, WA (Pakistan) EWCA Civ 302 and MK (Pakistan) UKUT 641 for gender-based framework. Current CPIN updates address specific recent developments.

Recent developments include continuing TLP mobilisation around blasphemy accusations, ongoing PECA 2016 (amended 2022 and 2025) framework producing prosecutions of religious minorities and social media users, and specific incidents of mob violence against Christian, Ahmadi, and Hindu communities. Journalist killings including the Arshad Sharif case continue to feature in asylum arguments from Pakistani applicants.

Afghanistan: Post-Taliban

Afghanistan under Taliban rule since August 2021 has produced systematic patterns of persecution documented in extensive human rights reporting. The Ministry for the Propagation of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice edicts restricting women's education, employment, and public appearance continue. Systematic forced marriage of women without mahram continues. Persecution of Hazara, Uzbek, Tajik, and other minorities continues. Former government officials, military personnel, and international organisation employees face specific targeting.[3]

Country guidance framework is developing. Home Office CPINs provide framework. UNAMA reports document systematic patterns. Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, and Afghanistan-focused NGOs document ongoing developments. The AA (Afghanistan) UKUT 15 country guidance addressed earlier framework; post-Taliban framework continues to evolve.

Recent developments include continuing education ban for girls beyond primary level, expanded restrictions on women's public activities, ongoing targeted killings and disappearances of former government affiliates, continued Hazara persecution including targeted attacks, and worsening humanitarian conditions creating compound vulnerability. Various country experts including Kate Clark of Afghanistan Analysts Network, and various academic specialists provide detailed analysis.

Iraq: Continuing Patterns

Iraqi asylum patterns include Yezidi survivor continuing needs following ISIS enslavement in 2014-2017 period, ongoing security concerns in various regions particularly against religious minorities, tribal reconciliation practices including fasliya using women as compensation, and specific patterns affecting LGBTQ+ Iraqis in a context of state and social hostility.

Country guidance framework includes SMO (Iraq) UKUT 400 addressing Article 15(c) framework and general security analysis, AAW (Yazidi) UKUT 122 addressing Yezidi protection needs, and various individual case decisions addressing specific issues. Kurdish Regional Government areas require distinct analysis from federal Iraqi areas.

Recent developments include continuing Yazidi Survivors Law 2021 implementation with limited effectiveness, ongoing tensions in Kirkuk and disputed territories, specific security incidents affecting religious minorities, and continued Yezidi displacement. Various country experts including academic specialists at Iraqi Institute for Strategic Studies and various universities provide detailed analysis.

Somalia: Systematic Patterns

Somali asylum patterns include ongoing Al-Shabaab control in significant territory with associated persecution of those refusing to submit including forced marriage, forced recruitment, and various forms of violence. Clan-based patterns of persecution against minority clans continue. FGM remains virtually universal creating compound vulnerability alongside forced marriage. Federal government has limited capacity to provide protection.

Country guidance framework includes MOJ (Somalia) UKUT 442 as foundational, AAW (Somalia) framework addressing specific aspects, and various individual case decisions. Fornah UKHL 46 applies to FGM cases which frequently intersect with forced marriage. Somaliland and Puntland analysis distinct from south-central Somalia.

Recent developments include continuing Al-Shabaab operations including significant attacks, ongoing drought impact producing compound vulnerability, continuing state institutional weakness, and specific security incidents affecting civilians. Various country experts including academic specialists at various universities and Somalia-focused NGOs provide detailed analysis.

Iran: State Persecution

Iranian asylum patterns include state persecution of religious minorities particularly Baha'is and Christian converts from Muslim background, LGBTQ+ persecution including judicial and extra-judicial violence, women's rights activists persecution including through morality police and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps actions, Kurdish, Baluch, and other ethnic minority persecution, and political activists including student protestors persecution.[4]

Case law framework includes HJ (Iran) UKSC 31 as foundational for LGBTQ+ concealment framework, various country guidance addressing specific aspects, and extensive individual case law. Danian framework applies to sur place claims involving activities in receiving countries. Various case law addresses religious conversion cases specifically.

Recent developments include continuing Mahsa Amini protest-related persecution of women and activists, escalated persecution of Baha'is and Christians, ongoing execution of political prisoners, and specific patterns affecting Kurdish and Baluch minorities. Various country experts including academic specialists at various universities and Iran-focused NGOs provide detailed analysis.

Venezuela: Political Persecution

Venezuelan asylum patterns include ongoing political persecution of opposition members, journalists, human rights defenders, and various other targeted groups. The Maduro regime, continuing after 2024 elections despite widespread reports of fraud, maintains extensive security apparatus targeting political opposition. Colectivos and SEBIN operate as instruments of state repression. Humanitarian crisis compounds displacement pressure.

Country context framework operates through various country of origin information sources given absence of established country guidance case for Venezuela in some jurisdictions. US State Department reports, UNHCR position papers, Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, and Venezuelan-focused NGOs provide documentation. Various academic specialists provide detailed analysis.

Recent developments include continuing post-2024 election political persecution, ongoing Colectivo violence against opposition, systematic detention of political prisoners, and continuing humanitarian collapse producing compound vulnerability. Various country experts including academic specialists at various universities and Venezuela-focused organisations provide detailed analysis.

Colombia: Armed Group Patterns

Colombian asylum patterns include ongoing armed group violence particularly by Clan del Golfo (also known as AGC — Autodefensas Gaitanistas de Colombia) as the largest armed group. Displacement, targeted killings of social leaders and human rights defenders, and forced recruitment continue. La Guajira and various other departments experience specific patterns of state absence and armed group control.

Country context framework operates through various country of origin information sources. US State Department reports, UNHCR position papers, and Colombia-focused NGOs including Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International provide documentation. Various academic specialists provide detailed analysis.

Recent developments include continuing targeted killings of social leaders (Indepaz documentation shows over 1000 leaders killed since 2016 peace agreement), ongoing Clan del Golfo territorial expansion, continued ELN (Ejército de Liberación Nacional) operations, and specific patterns affecting Afro-Colombian and indigenous communities. Various country experts provide detailed analysis.

Honduras: Gang Governance

Honduran asylum patterns include gang governance particularly by MS-13 and 18th Street gangs with associated forced recruitment, extortion, and violence against those refusing to comply. Women's specific vulnerability to gender-based violence including femicide continues. LGBTQ+ persecution including specific documented killings continues. Journalists and human rights defenders face persecution.

Country context framework includes various country guidance and case law across jurisdictions. Matter of A-B- 27 I&N Dec 316 and its modifications addressed particular social group framework relevant to Honduran gender-based claims. Various individual case decisions have addressed specific aspects.

Recent developments include continuing high femicide rates, ongoing gang recruitment and violence, continuing LGBTQ+ persecution including specific killings, and specific patterns affecting environmental defenders. Various country experts provide detailed analysis.

Haiti: State Collapse

Haitian asylum patterns include effective state collapse with gang control over substantial territory including much of Port-au-Prince. G9 alliance and various other armed groups control access to areas, engage in systematic violence including sexual violence, and prevent normal governance. Kidnapping for ransom is systematic. Return produces protection failure regardless of individual profile.

Country context framework operates through various country of origin information sources. UNHCR issued Haiti-specific guidance addressing return protection issues. Various NGO reports document ongoing patterns. Various academic specialists provide detailed analysis.

Recent developments include continuing gang violence, ongoing UN-supported Kenyan-led security mission with limited effectiveness, continuing displacement, and specific patterns affecting particular vulnerable groups. Various country experts provide detailed analysis.

Russia: Wartime Persecution

Russian asylum patterns include persecution of those opposing the war against Ukraine, LGBTQ+ persecution intensified through "extremist" designation of LGBTQ+ movement, political opposition persecution including through detention and various forms of pressure, journalists persecution including through foreign agent designation, and various other patterns. Chechen and North Caucasian specific patterns continue.

Country context framework operates through various country of origin information sources. UNHCR issued Russia-specific guidance addressing continuing patterns. Various NGO reports including Memorial, Russian LGBT Network, OVD-Info, and various others document ongoing patterns. Various academic specialists provide detailed analysis.

Recent developments include continuing war-related persecution of dissenters, ongoing LGBTQ+ persecution following November 2023 Supreme Court decision, continued political prosecutions, and specific patterns affecting particular vulnerable groups including Ukrainians in occupied territories. Various country experts provide detailed analysis.

Brazil: Femicide Patterns

Brazilian asylum patterns include ongoing femicide crisis despite formal legal framework including Maria da Penha Law 2006 and Femicide Law 2015. Approximately four women per day killed in domestic violence contexts. Enforcement gaps produce systematic protection failure. LGBTQ+ persecution particularly against trans women continues with Brazil having highest documented trans killings globally.[5]

Country context framework operates through various country of origin information sources. Fórum Brasileiro de Segurança Pública annual reports document violence patterns. ANTRA reports document trans killings. Various NGO reports document specific patterns. Various academic specialists provide detailed analysis.

Recent developments include continuing femicide crisis with limited effective response, ongoing trans killings, continued environmental defender killings including Amazon regions, and specific patterns affecting Indigenous communities. Various country experts provide detailed analysis.

Cross-Cutting Themes

Cross-cutting themes emerging from the country analyses include gender-based persecution persisting despite formal legal reforms — Pakistan, Iran, Iraq, Somalia, Afghanistan, Honduras, Haiti, and Brazil all show substantial gaps between formal law and practical protection. Religious minority persecution intersecting with authoritarian governance — Pakistan Ahmadis, Iranian Baha'is and Christians, ongoing patterns across various contexts.

Criminal governance patterns producing displacement in Latin America — Clan del Golfo in Colombia, MS-13 and 18th Street in Honduras, G9 alliance in Haiti all demonstrate patterns where organised armed groups exercise governance functions that state cannot effectively counter. Political persecution across authoritarian regimes — Venezuela, Russia, Iran, and various other contexts all show systematic patterns of opposition targeting.

These cross-cutting themes strengthen individual claims by demonstrating that specific patterns applicants face fit within broader documented patterns. Where evidence shows that the applicant's specific experience is part of larger documented pattern, credibility findings favouring the applicant become more supportable. Country expert reports drawing on cross-cutting analysis provide particular strength.

Using Expert Witness Knowledge

Using expert witness knowledge effectively requires several considerations. First, matching the specific expert to the specific case — country expertise, sub-regional expertise, thematic expertise, and specific issue expertise all matter. Second, ensuring the expert has access to case-specific information to provide tailored analysis. Third, appropriate framing of expert evidence in relation to the substantive legal framework and specific credibility issues.[6]

Country expert selection considers academic qualifications, publication record, specific country expertise, and experience providing expert reports for asylum cases. Various country experts across major origin countries can be identified through academic institutions, thinktanks, and specialist provider networks. Cost varies but legal aid or NGO funding may cover in specific cases.

Expert report structure typically includes qualifications and expertise summary, case-specific instructions and questions addressed, general country conditions analysis, specific analysis addressing the applicant's circumstances, and clear conclusions with reasoning. Reports must comply with the technical requirements of the jurisdiction — CPR Part 35 and Practice Direction 35 in UK, and equivalent frameworks elsewhere.

Conclusion

Expert witness weekly insights for Week 16 synthesises country-specific developments across Pakistan (blasphemy under Article 295-C, forced marriage jirga/vani/swara, Ahmadi persecution under 2nd Constitutional Amendment 1974), Afghanistan (post-Taliban systematic persecution, women without mahram forced marriage, minority persecution), Iraq (Yezidi survivor needs, fasliya tribal reconciliation, sectarian patterns), Somalia (Al-Shabaab control, clan-based persecution, FGM under Fornah), Iran (state persecution of religious minorities, LGBTQ+ under HJ Iran UKSC 31, women's rights activists), Venezuela (post-2024 political persecution, Colectivos, SEBIN), Colombia (Clan del Golfo/AGC, social leader killings, ELN), Honduras (MS-13 and 18th Street gang governance, femicide, LGBTQ+ persecution), Haiti (state collapse, G9 alliance gang control, systematic sexual violence), Russia (war opposition persecution, LGBTQ+ under November 2023 Supreme Court decision, political opposition), Brazil (femicide crisis, trans killings ANTRA, environmental defender persecution). Country guidance framework includes MB Ahmadis UKUT 431, KA Pakistan UKUT 216, SM Pakistan UKUT 67, AA Afghanistan UKUT 15, SMO Iraq UKUT 400, AAW Yazidi UKUT 122, MOJ Somalia UKUT 442, HJ Iran UKSC 31, Shah and Islam UKHL 20, Fornah UKHL 46. Cross-cutting themes include gender-based persecution persistence despite legal reforms, religious minority persecution intersection with authoritarian governance, criminal governance patterns in Latin America, and political persecution across authoritarian regimes. Using expert witness knowledge requires appropriate expert selection, case-specific instruction, and framing in relation to legal framework — reports must comply with CPR Part 35 / Practice Direction 35 in UK and equivalent frameworks elsewhere. See our companion articles on this week's expert reports impact, credibility in asylum cases, and how to appeal.