Expert Witness Insights: Week 15 — Key Country Analysis

This Week 15 edition of expert witness weekly insights tracks the key country developments reshaping asylum case strategy this week — Pakistan blasphemy surge, Pakistan ISI disappearances continuing, Somalia Al-Shabaab southern offensive, Ceuta August 2026 aftermath, Venezuela post-July 2024 continuing crackdown, Iraq April 2024 legal aftermath, Afghanistan 5-year mark, Colombia AGC consolidation. Q2 2026 pattern is: continuity of established country conditions plus emerging Pakistan focus.[1]

Week 15 continues the Q2 2026 pattern. Country expert instructions this week concentrate on Pakistan, Somalia, and Colombia — each with case-specific evidence requirements and CG framework anchors. Established frameworks (YMKA, MOJ, SMO Iraq, MB Ahmadis, Shah/Islam) remain central.

Pakistan — Multiple Profile Focus

Pakistan dominates this week's instructions.[2]

Blasphemy Cases

Continuing surge documented by CSJ and HRCP. PECA 2025 amendments creating new legal framework. WhatsApp/TikTok/Facebook triggers proliferating. Jaranwala August 2023 legacy continuing. Section 295-C framework anchor. See our blasphemy article.

Ahmadi Cases

MB Ahmadis Pakistan CG [2012] UKUT 431 framework. 2nd Constitutional Amendment 1974 + Ordinance XX 1984. UK Ahmadiyya Muslim Community verification pathway. See our Ahmadi article.

Women Cases

Continuing honour violence cases. 2016 Anti-Honour Killing Law weakly implemented. Shah and Islam framework origin. KA Pakistan CG [2010], SM Pakistan CG [2016].

Baloch/PTM Cases

Continuing ISI enforced disappearances. Mahrang Baloch, BYC prosecution. UN WGEID continuing citations. See our ISI disappearances.

Somalia — Continuing Southern Offensive

Al-Shabaab continuing southern offensive Q2 2026.[3]

Reports Being Instructed

Minority clan applicants (Bantu Jareer, Benadiri). Women without male clan support. LGBTQ+ Somalis. Al-Shabaab escapees. Former government/security personnel.

Framework

MOJ Somalia CG [2014] UKUT 442. AMM Somalia CG [2011] UKUT 445. Clan expertise essential. See our clan system and return risk.

Colombia — AGC + Wayuu

Reports Being Instructed

Social leaders (INDEPAZ tracking). Ex-FARC signatories (~450 killed). Wayuu La Guajira activists. Anti-mining/anti-wind energy activists. Land restitution claimants.

Framework

UK CPIN Colombia. UNP protection scheme delays. Horvath state protection framework. See our Clan del Golfo and La Guajira.

Ceuta — August 2026 Aftermath

Post-August 2026 crossings aftermath.[4]

Reports Being Instructed

Sudanese (RSF war continuing). Yemeni, Eritrean, Syrian, sub-Saharan African. Morocco not safe third country. ND & NT v Spain distinguishing evidence.

Framework

Article 3 ECHR framework. Article 4 Protocol 4 collective expulsion. See our rented fence, hot returns, and who climbs.

Venezuela — Continuing Crackdown

Post-July 2024 election continuing.[5]

SEBIN-DGCIM-FAES apparatus continuing. Comando ConVzla witnesses targeted. Machado underground; González Urrutia in Spain. Mental health system collapse framework. See our apparatus article and deportees.

Afghanistan — 5-Year Taliban Rule

YMKA CG framework continuing. September 2024 Vice and Virtue Law + late 2024 medical training ban. Kill list documentation for former government workers. See our Afghanistan article.

Iraq — April 2024 Legal Aftermath

LGBTQ+ criminalisation continuing consequences. February 2025 Personal Status Law amendment. PMF continuing. See our Iraq article.

Iran — Continuing Post-Mahsa

Hijab law 2024 amendments continuing. WLF diaspora targeting. Baháʼí community continuing persecution. AB and Others (Iran) framework.

Sudan — 3rd Year of RSF War

El Fasher siege continuing. Darfur atrocities documented UN FFM. Continuing displacement to Chad, Egypt. Onward migration to North Africa and beyond.

Russia — Wartime Continuing

Article 207.3, 275.1, 280, 282 prosecutions continuing. Draft evasion cases. Anti-war activists in exile. LGBTQ+ "extremist" 2023 designation continuing.

Yemen — Continuing Houthi War

Continuing conflict. Baháʼí persecution. LGBTQ+ criminalisation. Article 15(c) framework.

Eritrea — Continuing

Indefinite national service. Shoot-to-kill border. MST and others (Eritrea) framework.

Myanmar — Continuing

Rohingya continuing. Post-2021 coup crisis. Documented military atrocities.

New Developments Q2 2026

Pakistan PECA 2025 Amendments

Fake news framework. Contested by PFUJ. New context for journalist prosecutions.

EU Migration Pact Implementation

Application from mid-2026. AMMR replacing Dublin. Solidarity mechanism.

US 2025 Border Policy

Continuing restrictions. Third country arrangements. Withholding + CAT frameworks.

Grant Rate Summary Q2 2026

Week 15 sees Pakistan dominate country expert instructions — blasphemy surge, Ahmadi cases, Baloch enforced disappearance, women fleeing honour. Somalia, Colombia, Ceuta continuing. Framework anchors (YMKA, MOJ, SMO Iraq, MB Ahmadis, Shah/Islam, Horvath, Karanakaran) continue to govern.
Practice observation Q2 2026

Conclusion

Expert witness weekly insights Week 15 — Pakistan focus (blasphemy, Ahmadi, Baloch, women), Somalia continuing Al-Shabaab southern offensive, Colombia AGC + Wayuu, Ceuta August 2026 aftermath, Venezuela continuing, Afghanistan 5-year mark, Iraq April 2024 aftermath. New developments — Pakistan PECA 2025, EU Migration Pact 2026 application, US 2025 border policy. Grant rates 65-95%. See our companion reports article and database.