Expert Witness Insights: Week 11 — Key Country Analysis

This Week 11 round-up of expert witness weekly insights consolidates country analysis findings surfaced through this week's practitioner casework — Central Asia and Eastern Europe (Russia post-2025, Belarus, Tajikistan Pamiri, Azerbaijan) and East Africa (Eritrea national service, Sudan civil war implications, Ethiopia post-Tigray, Somalia). It builds on Week 10 (see Week 10 hub) and continues the weekly Expert Witness Knowledge Hub series.[1]

Expert witness work this week covered Russian anti-war refuseniks, Belarusian post-2020 opposition, Tajik Pamiri activists post-Khorog 2022, Eritrean indefinite service claims, Sudanese Darfur ethnic targeting, Ethiopian Amhara-Tigray tensions, and Somali Al-Shabaab-affected profiles. Each case turns on country-specific evidence applied to individual profile.

Russia — Continuing Anti-War Persecution

Russia's post-February 2022 anti-war prosecution framework continues through mid-2026. Article 207.3 of the Criminal Code criminalises "discrediting" the armed forces with penalties up to 15 years. Broader Article 275.1 covers "confidential cooperation" with foreign states. OVD-Info documented 20,000+ arrests for anti-war activity through 2025.[2]

Anti-war activists — public protest, social media posts. Conscription refusers — mobilisation and second-line service. Independent journalists — "foreign agent" designation. Opposition supporters — Navalny successors; Yashin, Volkov. LGBT persons — "extremist LGBT movement" designation 2023. Religious minorities — Jehovah's Witnesses, Krishna followers.

Belarus — Post-2020 Continuing

Belarus's post-August 2020 political prisoner situation continues. Viasna documented ~1,500 political prisoners as of Q2 2026. Categories include the following.

2020 protest participants — arrested 4+ years later. Independent journalists — outlets banned as "extremist". Tikhanovskaya supporters — including via family targeting. Trade unionists — post-2022 crackdown. Sports figures — Belarusian Sport Solidarity Foundation.

Tajikistan — Pamiri Persecution

Tajikistan's persecution of the Pamiri (Gorno-Badakhshan) ethnic minority continues post-2022 Khorog massacre. Rakhmon regime consolidation continues. Documented pattern includes:[3]

Community leader arrests — including former ismaili religious figures. Journalist targeting — Ulfatkhonim Mamadshoeva prosecution. Ismaili community suppression. GBAO travel restrictions. Diaspora surveillance.

Azerbaijan — Post-Karabakh

Azerbaijan's post-2023 Karabakh operation environment continues to affect asylum cases. Notable elements include:

Continued political prisoner waves — Meydan TV, Toplum TV cases. Meydan Journalism prosecutions 2024-2025. Rufat Safarov and other activists imprisoned. Post-Karabakh Armenian population situation.

Eritrea — Indefinite National Service

Eritrean asylum cases continue to succeed at ~88% grant rates internationally. Key profiles:[4]

National service escapees — indefinite duration continues. Pentecostals and other non-permitted religions. Political prisoners' family members — G-15 legacy. Second-generation Eritreans — diaspora with returnee risk.

Sudan — Civil War

Sudan's civil war (RSF vs SAF since April 2023) continues into 2026 with catastrophic humanitarian consequences. UN documentation includes:[5]

~13 million displaced (internally and internationally). Ethnic violence in Darfur — Zaghawa, Masalit particularly targeted. Sexual violence weaponised. Famine conditions declared. El Fasher, Al Junaynah particular concern zones.

Asylum profiles include Darfur civilians, journalists, former government officials, women fleeing sexual violence.

Ethiopia — Post-Tigray

Ethiopia's post-Tigray ceasefire situation remains complex. Amhara conflict since 2023 continues; Fano militia operations. Oromia situation continues. Profiles include:

Tigrayan community members — post-ceasefire reintegration difficulties. Amhara Fano-affected civilians. Oromo activists. Journalists — Ethiopia remains dangerous.

Somalia — Al-Shabaab Continuing

Al-Shabaab operations continue across Somali territory. UK CPIN Somalia continues to support cases from Al-Shabaab-affected profiles. Clan-based violence continues. Notable profiles include:

Al-Shabaab defectors. Clan minorities — Bantu, Benadiri. Women fleeing FGM and forced marriage. Journalists. Somaliland conflict-affected.

Recurring Themes Across This Week

State perpetrators dominant — Russia, Belarus, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, Eritrea. Civil war contexts — Sudan, Ethiopia regions, Somalia. Diaspora surveillance — Russia, Belarus, Tajikistan. Internal relocation infeasibility — for state perpetrator cases. Family targeting — Russia, Belarus, Eritrea common. Documentation availability variable — depending on regime openness.

Jurisdiction Success Rates This Week

Week 11 Lessons

1. Country expert essential across all profiles.
2. Sur place evidence important — especially Russia, Belarus.
3. Family targeting documentation — significant for Russia, Belarus.
4. Ethnic identity documentation — Tajik Pamiri, Sudanese Zaghawa/Masalit.
5. Diaspora activism creates ongoing risk in surveillance states.
6. Update evidence weekly — country conditions moving quickly.

Week 11 confirms sustained protection needs across Central Asia, Eastern Europe, and East Africa. State perpetrator profiles dominate the Central Asia/Eastern Europe caseload; civil war and ethnic-targeting profiles dominate the East African caseload. Country evidence must be current — 2025-2026 developments matter.
Expert Witness Hub Week 11 summary

Conclusion

This Week 11 expert witness weekly insights covers Central Asia, Eastern Europe, and East Africa. Russia, Belarus, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan continue state persecution patterns. Eritrea national service and religious persecution continue. Sudan civil war continues catastrophic. Ethiopia post-Tigray complex. Somalia Al-Shabaab continuing. Country expert reports essential. See our companion Week 10 hub, Week 10 reports, and country database.