Ethiopia: Civilians Displaced Amid Internal Conflicts

Ethiopia has experienced one of the largest internal displacement crises in the world since 2020. The outbreak of the Tigray war in November 2020, followed by violence in Amhara, Oromia, Afar and Benishangul-Gumuz, combined with severe drought in eastern regions, has forced millions of civilians to leave their homes. Despite partial returns following the Pretoria peace agreement of November 2022, millions of Ethiopians remain internally displaced. This report examines the scale of displacement, regional conflict dynamics, humanitarian conditions, and the implications for international protection claims.

Internal Displacement: Scale and Geographic Distribution

The IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix identified more than 4.38 million internally displaced persons across 11 regions between November 2022 and June 2023. A subsequent assessment covering August-September 2023 recorded over 3.45 million IDPs across 12 regions, though insecurity prevented full data collection in parts of Amhara. OCHA estimated in June 2024 that approximately 4.5 million people remained internally displaced, with 56% displaced for more than one year, 23% for two to four years, and 11% for five years or longer. The Somali region hosts more than 1.3 million IDPs largely due to drought, while Oromia and Tigray each host more than one million IDPs mainly as a result of armed conflict.[1][2]

The Tigray War and Its Humanitarian Consequences

The conflict in Tigray between federal forces, Eritrean troops and the TPLF was the primary driver of Ethiopia's displacement crisis between 2020 and 2022. When Tigray was re-included in displacement monitoring for the first time since 2021, it was identified as the region hosting the largest number of conflict-displaced persons. Following the Pretoria ceasefire agreement, 59% of all returning IDPs were located in Tigray, 15% in Amhara, and 8% in Afar. Despite these returns, more than one million people remain displaced in the region. Large areas of north-western Tigray, including Tselemti district, continue to experience gradual return processes while facing serious challenges related to security, infrastructure destruction and lack of services.[1][3]

Displacement in Oromia, Amhara and Afar

Violence in other regions has sustained the national displacement crisis beyond the Tigray war. In Oromia, long-running violence involving the Oromo Liberation Army and security forces has displaced large civilian populations, with approximately 453,000 people remaining displaced in East Borena, Guji and West Guji zones. The Amhara region has experienced significant displacement linked to both the northern war and later confrontations between federal authorities and regional armed groups, with 145,981 displaced individuals reported in North Gondar Zone alone. The national displacement caseload remained close to 4.6 million people across twelve regions by October 2023.[1][2]

Refugees and Asylum Seekers Abroad

In addition to internal displacement, Ethiopia hosts 1,115,839 refugees and asylum seekers from neighbouring countries while also generating outward refugee movements. Significant numbers of Ethiopian refugees have fled to Sudan, Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, and Yemen, particularly during the Tigray war. European asylum data indicate an increase in applications by Ethiopian nationals during and after the conflict, generally linked to armed conflict, human rights violations and famine risk.[3]

Risk Profiles Relevant to Asylum Assessments

Organisations Monitoring the Situation

Analytical Assessment

Ethiopia's displacement crisis is one of the largest and most complex in the world, driven by the intersection of federal-regional armed conflict, insurgency, inter-communal violence, and climate shocks. The scale of 4.5 million internally displaced persons, with 64% displaced by armed conflict, establishes that generalised violence across multiple regions reaches the threshold for subsidiary protection under the EU Qualification Directive in the most severely affected areas. The protracted nature of displacement, with more than half of IDPs displaced for over a year, demonstrates that conditions are not temporary but structural.

The Tigray war produced the most concentrated humanitarian catastrophe, with documented patterns of sexual violence, forced displacement, and deliberate deprivation of humanitarian assistance affecting the Tigrayan civilian population. For individuals from Tigray, the combination of ethnic targeting and the documented severity of harm during the conflict establishes a clear persecution nexus on grounds of ethnicity and imputed political opinion. The incomplete nature of returns and continued security challenges in areas such as north-western Tigray mean that internal relocation within the region remains problematic.

The extension of conflict-driven displacement into Oromia, Amhara, and other regions demonstrates that the crisis is national in scope rather than confined to a single theatre. For international protection claims, this geographical breadth complicates internal relocation arguments, as displacement and violence affect multiple regions simultaneously. The combination of conflict, environmental stress, and governance fragility suggests that Ethiopia's displacement crisis will remain a significant feature of the country's humanitarian and political landscape for the foreseeable future.[1][3]