Escalating Gang Violence Forces Salvadorans to Flee

El Salvador presents a paradoxical and dangerous dual-risk environment. While homicide rates have fallen under President Bukele's State of Emergency, more than 80,000 people have been detained, often arbitrarily, and hundreds have died in custody. For Salvadorans, the threat now comes from both gangs and the state itself. This report examines the concentration of executive power, mass detention practices, gang dynamics, and the implications for international protection claims.

Political System and Concentration of Power

El Salvador operates formally as a constitutional republic, but recent developments indicate a significant concentration of power in the executive. Since taking office in 2019, President Bukele has systematically weakened institutional checks and balances. The removal and replacement of Supreme Court judges and the Attorney General in 2021 marked a turning point in judicial independence. The newly appointed court subsequently authorised Bukele's re-election despite a constitutional prohibition on consecutive terms. His re-election in 2024 with overwhelming popular support further consolidated executive dominance.[3]

State of Emergency and Mass Detention

The State of Emergency has become the defining feature of El Salvador's current human rights environment. Since March 2022, more than 80,000 individuals have been detained, often without warrants, evidence, or due process. Evidence from Amnesty International and other monitoring bodies indicates that detentions frequently rely on profiling factors such as age, appearance, tattoos, or residence in certain neighbourhoods.[1]

Gang Violence and Civilian Risk

Before the State of Emergency, El Salvador was dominated by gang structures, primarily MS-13 and Barrio 18. These groups exercised territorial control over large parts of the country and operated systems of extortion, coercion, and violence that affected nearly all aspects of civilian life. Although homicide rates have significantly declined under the current security policy, this does not equate to the complete dismantling of gang structures. Evidence suggests that gang networks have been disrupted but not eliminated, and their capacity for control and retaliation persists in many areas. Extortion demands were imposed on businesses, transport operators, and households. Forced recruitment was a major risk for adolescent boys, and women and girls faced widespread sexual violence.[2]

Violence Against Vulnerable Groups

Certain groups face heightened and intersecting risks in El Salvador. The dual structure of risk, from gangs and from the state, means that the most vulnerable individuals may face threats from multiple directions simultaneously. Women are exposed to both gang-related and state-related violence. Under gang control, sexual violence was used systematically as a tool of domination. Under the State of Emergency, reports also indicate instances of abuse within detention settings. Children and adolescents are particularly vulnerable: boys face pressure to join gangs, while the detention of minors under the emergency regime further exacerbates risks.[1]

Humanitarian Situation and Displacement

Despite improvements in official crime statistics, the humanitarian situation remains fragile. Internal displacement caused by gang violence continues to affect many communities. The economic impact of extortion, combined with poverty rates exceeding 30%, contributes to ongoing instability. Under the current regime, a second driver of displacement has emerged: fear of arbitrary detention. Individuals and families may flee not only gang threats but also the risk of being wrongfully detained by state authorities based on profiling or community association.[4]

Migration and International Protection

El Salvador remains a significant country of origin for asylum seekers. Claims are often based on threats from gangs, including extortion, forced recruitment, and gender-based violence. However, the current context requires a broader analytical framework that accounts for state-led persecution as a second source of risk. Individuals may fall into overlapping risk categories: a person targeted by gangs may also be at risk of detention by the state due to profiling practices.[5]

Monitoring Organisations

Analytical Assessment

While the Bukele administration has achieved a measurable reduction in homicide rates, this has been accomplished through the systematic suspension of due process guarantees and the institutionalisation of widespread human rights violations. The State of Emergency has transformed the nature of risk rather than eliminated it: the previous model of gang-dominated violence has been partially displaced by a system of mass detention, arbitrary enforcement, and custodial abuse.[1][2]

The collapse of judicial independence and the documented disregard for court orders further undermine the availability of effective remedies. Where the state is both unwilling and unable to provide protection, and where the state itself functions as a direct source of harm, the threshold for international protection may be met without reference to non-state actors at all.[3]

Individuals in El Salvador may be targeted by gangs for extortion, recruitment, or retaliation, while simultaneously facing the risk of arbitrary detention by state authorities. The overlap between these risks significantly increases vulnerability, particularly for young men, women in gang-affected areas, and individuals with prior contact with gangs or the justice system. From a country-of-origin information perspective, El Salvador must be understood as a context of dual-source persecution.[4][5]