Return Risk Assessment: Afghanistan (2026) — Taliban Targeting of Returnees

This risk assessment on Afghanistan return risk examines the 2026 landscape of Taliban targeting of returnees — deportees from Pakistan/Iran, voluntary returnees, forcibly removed asylum seekers from Europe. It complements our earlier return risk article with fresh emphasis on Q2 2026 deportation waves and profile-specific screening.[1]

Pakistan's 750,000+ cumulative Afghan deportations and Iran's ~1 million deportations combined with continuing forced returns from European states create a mass-return protection crisis. UN OHCHR calls for suspension of returns; return grants approximately 88-95%.

Regional Deportation Waves

Regional deportation pressure has escalated dramatically 2023-2026.[2]

Pakistan

Illegal Foreigners Repatriation Plan launched November 2023. 750,000+ cumulative deportations by 2026. Second phase targeting Afghan Citizen Card holders. Third phase targeting Proof of Registration cards. Documented forced-return conditions.

Iran

1 million+ deportations 2023-2025. Militarised borders. Bulk deportation buses to Islam Qala. Family separation documented.

Europe

Germany resumed deportations August 2024. Austria removed some Afghans 2024-2025. UK considers airport transit removal. Denmark, Sweden restrictive policies.

Airport Screening at HKIA

Taliban intelligence maintains screening at Hamid Karzai International Airport.[3]

Biometric database appropriated from Afghan government. ID verification against known lists. Deportee lists shared by Pakistani/Iranian authorities. European deportation manifests visible to Taliban. Immediate detention risk for named individuals.

Return Risk by Profile

General Humanitarian Risk

Even absent profile-specific targeting, return conditions create Article 15(c) qualification concerns.[4]

~15 million facing acute food insecurity. Frozen central bank reserves. Currency collapse. Healthcare system collapse. Housing shortage (returnees have no accommodation). Employment collapse. ISKP attacks continuing.

Women-Specific Return Risk

All Afghan women face gender-based persecution on return.[5]

Face covering enforcement. Mahram requirement for movement. Education access denied. Employment ban. Healthcare barriers. MPVPV enforcement. Forced marriage risk.

YMKA and Others Afghanistan CG [2022] UKUT 348 established women/girls face persecution on return.

Legal Framework

UK

UK CPIN Afghanistan; YMKA and Others; Article 3 ECHR.

EU

Qualification Directive; Article 15(c) Elgafaji indiscriminate violence.

UN

UN OHCHR calls for moratorium on returns to Afghanistan.[6]

Non-Refoulement Framework

1951 Convention Article 33 — non-refoulement. ECHR Article 3 — torture/inhuman treatment. UN Convention Against Torture Article 3. ICCPR Article 7.

Taliban targeting of returnees documented cases trigger Article 33/3 duties.

Evidence Framework

UK CPIN Afghanistan (April 2025 update). UN OHCHR Afghanistan quarterly reports. Rawadari case documentation. HRW Afghanistan reports. UN SR Bennett reports. Country expert reports. Diaspora witness statements. Employment/family documentation.

Grant Rates for Afghan Applicants

Return to Afghanistan under Taliban rule creates documented risk across multiple profiles. Airport screening operational, kill lists maintained, women face gender apartheid, humanitarian crisis compounds. Non-refoulement duties triggered.
UN OHCHR Afghanistan

Conclusion

Afghanistan return risk in 2026 remains at extreme levels across multiple profiles. 1.75M+ regional deportations from Pakistan/Iran; European removals resumed; airport screening operational; gender apartheid for women. Grant rates 80-95% globally. See our companion earlier return risk article, Afghanistan analytical report, and government workers article.